{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6653e70c-6f94-4d71-a9fc-b664c493330f",
    "symbol": "WTRG",
    "name": "Essential Utilities Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 56.885,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 25.664,
    "architecture_energy": 40.395,
    "architecture_maturity": 6.633,
    "architecture_confidence": 62.107,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.64,
        "rotation_up": 66.28,
        "upward_expansion": 53.84,
        "deceleration": 14.93,
        "rotation_down": 16.17,
        "downward_expansion": 21.84
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        39.759333,
        39.258545,
        38.636564,
        38.721969
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 40.04,
    "trend_reference": 38.763981,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.032918,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 36.228675,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.105202,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -7.603957,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.089701,
    "excess_performance": -0.035924,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.032918,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005408,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.105202,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076506,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.07604,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.05843,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.089701,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.803607,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 10887507,
      "relative_activity": 1.111522,
      "balance": 1.803607,
      "dry_up": 1.063261,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.045185,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.193141,
      "from_high_reference": -0.034389,
      "from_low_reference": 0.118686
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 38.763981,
      "fair_value_reference": 36.228675,
      "structural_low": 36.039901,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.013124,
        "positive_rate": 0.166667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.166667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.024628,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.035306,
        "worst_return": -0.072036,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.096747,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.123017,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.02833,
        "worst_return": -0.125084,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.013047,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.188116,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.071237,
        "worst_return": -0.141569,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.081908,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.315293,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.092463,
        "worst_return": -0.231722,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.023108,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.001875,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.029111,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030686,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.063022,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "return": 0.053844,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.071935,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-03-06",
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        "return": 0.073687,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.05114,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.018042,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "return": -0.002137,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-06-12",
        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.049853,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": 0.026698,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.004768,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 11283708.95,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 11345069.15,
        "trend": 38.481559,
        "fair_value": 36.165517,
        "relative_strength": -9.500135,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -2.650847,
        "energy": 9.888551,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 39.69,
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        "typical_volume": 9875081.6,
        "trend": 38.563065,
        "fair_value": 36.170847,
        "relative_strength": -5.282949,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 22.091884,
        "energy": 23.872646,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.994,
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          38.48762
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 39.61,
        "volume": 9239241,
        "typical_volume": 9768600.2,
        "trend": 38.620956,
        "fair_value": 36.181212,
        "relative_strength": -4.812088,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 20.679465,
        "energy": 26.976614,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.330667,
          38.660909,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 39.85,
        "volume": 10889210,
        "typical_volume": 9783017.1,
        "trend": 38.683574,
        "fair_value": 36.20167,
        "relative_strength": -5.060905,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.913926,
        "energy": 37.514548,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.553333,
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          38.498825,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 40.04,
        "volume": 10887507,
        "typical_volume": 9795133.85,
        "trend": 38.763981,
        "fair_value": 36.228675,
        "relative_strength": -7.603957,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 25.664074,
        "energy": 40.394724,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}