{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66591a1e-2021-4a08-8966-7f0a90760924", "symbol": "688160", "name": "Kinco Automation (Shanghai) Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.042, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.34, "architecture_energy": 32.488, "architecture_maturity": 20.718, "architecture_confidence": 75.398, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.31, "rotation_up": 20.77, "upward_expansion": 11.71, "deceleration": 35.75, "rotation_down": 49.75, "downward_expansion": 73.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.709334, 111.51091, 113.881262, 114.624207 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 114.779999, "trend_reference": 118.81715, "distance_from_trend": -0.033978, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.13618, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.488018, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.730004, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.117881, "excess_performance": -0.074677, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033978, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029569, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.488018, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208021, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.0573, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032803, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.117881, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.219859, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11207233, "relative_activity": 0.952852, "balance": 1.219859, "dry_up": 1.07996, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.180412, "annualized_volatility": 0.763597, "from_high_reference": -0.330975, "from_low_reference": 0.406925 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 118.81715, "fair_value_reference": 77.13618, "structural_low": 92.510002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.041115, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.026239, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.413608, "worst_return": -0.183573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.08973, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.034815, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.7087, "worst_return": -0.227798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.187192, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.199196, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.694608, "worst_return": -0.293979, 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after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.228914, "energy": 14.905618, "activity_lines": [ 116.294668, 116.598364, 115.862149, 117.233164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 95.0, "volume": 11693231, "typical_volume": 11198762.45, "trend": 119.785648, "fair_value": 76.539144, "relative_strength": -9.359024, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.603604, "energy": 24.816294, "activity_lines": [ 109.353335, 112.233455, 114.044771, 115.634996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 109.400002, "volume": 11469428, "typical_volume": 11433451.7, "trend": 120.061568, "fair_value": 76.808447, "relative_strength": 3.818859, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.056633, "energy": 33.164169, "activity_lines": [ 108.351335, 111.086728, 113.696801, 114.964954 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 114.779999, "volume": 11207233, "typical_volume": 11761778.0, "trend": 118.81715, "fair_value": 77.13618, "relative_strength": 5.730004, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.339521, "energy": 32.487587, "activity_lines": [ 108.709334, 111.51091, 113.881262, 114.624207 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }