{ "ticker": { "uuid": "665a4430-e541-417a-8b68-8a8efd62922a", "symbol": "PAH3", "name": "Porsche Automobil Holding SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.284, "architecture_energy": 42.602, "architecture_maturity": 80.907, "architecture_confidence": 62.243, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.61, "rotation_up": 26.77, "upward_expansion": 17.9, "deceleration": 65.76, "rotation_down": 46.1, "downward_expansion": 70.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.258, 28.162743, 28.906117, 29.868076 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.15, "trend_reference": 31.507303, "distance_from_trend": -0.074818, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.00888, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.212351, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.190313, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173284, "excess_performance": -0.237924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074818, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098242, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.212351, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004192, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050185, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173284, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.585978, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2348280, "relative_activity": 0.921184, "balance": 1.585978, "dry_up": 1.010779, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043148, "annualized_volatility": 0.278911, "from_high_reference": -0.297929, "from_low_reference": 0.086066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.507303, "fair_value_reference": 37.00888, "structural_low": 26.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.002393, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023793, "regime_survival": 0.735294, "best_return": 0.153751, "worst_return": -0.150855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.031806, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.082723, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.057287, "worst_return": -0.126824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.042607, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.137108, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.080293, "worst_return": -0.201035, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.902245, "energy": 79.396699, "activity_lines": [ 27.646573, 28.368641, 29.377913, 30.619059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.1, "volume": 2358735, "typical_volume": 2555243.75, "trend": 32.212969, "fair_value": 37.230889, "relative_strength": -22.979451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.320881, "energy": 83.708659, "activity_lines": [ 27.367333, 28.023557, 29.076251, 30.262007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.78, "volume": 3331238, "typical_volume": 2589469.8, "trend": 31.822969, "fair_value": 37.113861, "relative_strength": -19.502727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.638223, "energy": 56.827871, "activity_lines": [ 27.782667, 28.042544, 28.96516, 30.040526 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.15, "volume": 2348280, "typical_volume": 2549198.1, "trend": 31.507303, "fair_value": 37.00888, "relative_strength": -20.190313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.283912, "energy": 42.601764, "activity_lines": [ 28.258, 28.162743, 28.906117, 29.868076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }