{ "ticker": { "uuid": "665aac71-496b-4ee9-9645-a22571c8f0c5", "symbol": "5PF", "name": "Jason Marine Group Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.473, "architecture_energy": 39.907, "architecture_maturity": 34.421, "architecture_confidence": 70.777, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.84, "rotation_up": 14.08, "upward_expansion": 18.51, "deceleration": 73.0, "rotation_down": 60.93, "downward_expansion": 38.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.137946, 0.150244, 0.156499, 0.156274 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.155, "trend_reference": 0.154188, "distance_from_trend": 0.005265, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.13006, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.403809, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033333, "excess_performance": -0.121502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005265, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046289, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191761, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000335, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124038, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092955, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4600, "relative_activity": 7.301587, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 2.65873, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100313, "annualized_volatility": 1.390283, "from_high_reference": -0.138889, "from_low_reference": 0.939075 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.154188, "fair_value_reference": 0.13006, "structural_low": 0.079935, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.090696, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.061192, "regime_survival": 0.083333, "best_return": 0.636366, "worst_return": -0.009085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.085106, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.090909, "median_excess_return": 0.083565, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.518183, "worst_return": -0.059658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.250974, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.193618, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.410663, "worst_return": 0.021278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101562, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"2026-07-03", "close": 0.165581, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 295.0, "trend": 0.153519, "fair_value": 0.129784, "relative_strength": -0.211953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.611899, "energy": 67.181204, "activity_lines": [ 0.171594, 0.169851, 0.163584, 0.159386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.165581, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 295.0, "trend": 0.154339, "fair_value": 0.130093, "relative_strength": -4.152146, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.65642, "energy": 57.298792, "activity_lines": [ 0.168949, 0.169783, 0.164165, 0.160164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.161774, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 350.0, "trend": 0.155031, "fair_value": 0.130153, "relative_strength": -6.871436, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.669445, "energy": 36.378803, "activity_lines": [ 0.165996, 0.168793, 0.164324, 0.160644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.161774, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 350.0, "trend": 0.155724, "fair_value": 0.130213, "relative_strength": -8.28296, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.193421, "energy": 44.887696, "activity_lines": [ 0.163858, 0.167644, 0.164441, 0.161079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.079935, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 400.0, "trend": 0.153688, "fair_value": 0.129922, "relative_strength": -54.495016, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.189653, "energy": 63.850144, "activity_lines": [ 0.135256, 0.151456, 0.156721, 0.156189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.155, "volume": 4600, "typical_volume": 630.0, "trend": 0.154188, "fair_value": 0.13006, "relative_strength": -12.403809, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.473416, "energy": 39.906909, "activity_lines": [ 0.137946, 0.150244, 0.156499, 0.156274 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }