{ "ticker": { "uuid": "665b80dd-94c6-4615-b1e7-600dac87fb85", "symbol": "DR", "name": "Medical Facilities Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.276, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -40.983, "architecture_energy": 37.578, "architecture_maturity": 30.952, "architecture_confidence": 68.508, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.23, "rotation_up": 19.46, "upward_expansion": 25.56, "deceleration": 66.52, "rotation_down": 61.11, "downward_expansion": 32.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.888, 17.394474, 17.476386, 17.296579 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.18, "trend_reference": 16.960547, "distance_from_trend": -0.104982, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.58376, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117511, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.565084, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.057783, "excess_performance": -0.178204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104982, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050047, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117511, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213574, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155651, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133822, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057783, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.578947, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 285600, "relative_activity": 3.040077, "balance": 0.578947, "dry_up": 1.497685, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048174, "annualized_volatility": 0.239685, "from_high_reference": -0.188098, "from_low_reference": 0.12969 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.960547, "fair_value_reference": 13.58376, "structural_low": 15.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036427, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.02889, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.20749, "worst_return": -0.050663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.111523, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.099921, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.338814, "worst_return": -0.00412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00249, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.012327, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.050813, "worst_return": -0.067407, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014417, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064669, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.139894, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023006, "active": false }, { 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16.669218, "fair_value": 13.285535, "relative_strength": 3.798585, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.145103, "energy": 66.128038, "activity_lines": [ 18.04174, 17.851936, 17.477885, 17.142734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.15, "volume": 140900, "typical_volume": 102640.0, "trend": 16.746877, "fair_value": 13.352778, "relative_strength": 3.282156, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.193698, "energy": 56.072293, "activity_lines": [ 18.067034, 17.941916, 17.569692, 17.238268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.85, "volume": 86300, "typical_volume": 99310.0, "trend": 16.833652, "fair_value": 13.418397, "relative_strength": 1.857124, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.307274, "energy": 45.31551, "activity_lines": [ 18.010208, 17.958346, 17.624638, 17.309437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.91, "volume": 80600, "typical_volume": 95875.0, "trend": 16.925393, "fair_value": 13.483031, "relative_strength": 1.997368, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.580893, "energy": 41.572117, "activity_lines": [ 17.987383, 17.969964, 17.680806, 17.378879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.459999, "volume": 110300, "typical_volume": 89965.0, "trend": 16.990252, "fair_value": 13.539661, "relative_strength": -0.044718, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.707685, "energy": 25.082169, "activity_lines": [ 17.802666, 17.889826, 17.689053, 17.41337 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.18, "volume": 285600, "typical_volume": 93945.0, "trend": 16.960547, "fair_value": 13.58376, "relative_strength": -15.565084, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.982828, "energy": 37.577935, "activity_lines": [ 16.888, 17.394474, 17.476386, 17.296579 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }