{ "ticker": { "uuid": "665c9692-3a84-4411-9748-4dbb11dc1bff", "symbol": "MRVL1", "name": "Marvell Technology, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.651, "architecture_energy": 27.823, "architecture_maturity": 81.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.39, "rotation_up": 17.49, "upward_expansion": 53.17, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 40.98, "downward_expansion": 21.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 3528.338672, 3888.660624, 3805.813127, 3377.317023 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3750.0, "trend_reference": 2780.849867, "distance_from_trend": 0.348509, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1654.059166, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.26715, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 65.017883, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.697919, "excess_performance": 1.752586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.348509, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.456885, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.26715, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180114, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.650179, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.697919, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.122408, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9712, "relative_activity": 1.463433, "balance": 3.122408, "dry_up": 1.270559, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.178575, "annualized_volatility": 0.746618, "from_high_reference": -0.330192, "from_low_reference": 2.252754 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2780.849867, "fair_value_reference": 1654.059166, "structural_low": 1316.961981, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006651, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.019205, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.127123, "worst_return": -0.333553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.140701, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.156191, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102266, "worst_return": -0.446776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.190872, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.285248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.181684, "worst_return": -0.361199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3267.916861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3300.77002, "volume": 11367, "typical_volume": 6338.45, "trend": 2705.848427, "fair_value": 1636.652075, "relative_strength": 47.873212, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.286049, "energy": 31.726607, "activity_lines": [ 3510.120602, 3968.092734, 3766.87435, 3309.952405 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3750.0, "volume": 9712, "typical_volume": 6636.45, "trend": 2780.849867, "fair_value": 1654.059166, "relative_strength": 65.017883, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.65081, "energy": 27.82317, "activity_lines": [ 3528.338672, 3888.660624, 3805.813127, 3377.317023 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }