{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6660907e-40a9-4fb3-abb7-006d6c5df932", "symbol": "MUNJALSHOW", "name": "Munjal Showa Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.545, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.724, "architecture_energy": 42.268, "architecture_maturity": 16.264, "architecture_confidence": 92.504, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.01, "rotation_up": 56.42, "upward_expansion": 80.48, "deceleration": 50.02, "rotation_down": 17.8, "downward_expansion": 9.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 132.720573, 131.08582, 131.017396, 129.541519 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 134.210007, "trend_reference": 127.41921, "distance_from_trend": 0.053295, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 138.238994, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.029145, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.761038, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.082164, "excess_performance": 0.125873, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053295, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012059, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.029145, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046142, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04761, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064228, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082164, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.215945, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1037920, "relative_activity": 4.951773, "balance": 6.215945, "dry_up": 1.87333, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048882, "annualized_volatility": 0.260306, "from_high_reference": -0.110603, "from_low_reference": 0.216772 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 127.41921, "fair_value_reference": 138.238994, "structural_low": 110.300003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.0285, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.000732, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.409186, "worst_return": -0.1238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.002411, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.039043, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.532241, "worst_return": -0.112848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.044068, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.047744, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.394269, "worst_return": -0.09161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": 24.752598, "energy": 15.846622, "activity_lines": [ 128.472547, 129.952789, 129.342589, 128.001493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 131.410065, "volume": 204091, "typical_volume": 170061.95, "trend": 126.50317, "fair_value": 138.261307, "relative_strength": 3.309402, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.330616, "energy": 15.293685, "activity_lines": [ 129.5049, 129.897254, 129.688524, 128.337056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 131.584457, "volume": 123387, "typical_volume": 160008.4, "trend": 126.716652, "fair_value": 138.24095, "relative_strength": 6.037777, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.163676, "energy": 17.131447, "activity_lines": [ 130.350713, 130.025972, 130.034876, 128.664881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 133.066741, "volume": 205245, "typical_volume": 164354.45, "trend": 126.97221, "fair_value": 138.2404, "relative_strength": 4.692805, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.507935, "energy": 24.887599, "activity_lines": [ 131.505657, 130.411751, 130.50014, 129.074564 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 134.210007, "volume": 1037920, "typical_volume": 209605.75, "trend": 127.41921, "fair_value": 138.238994, "relative_strength": 4.761038, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.724469, "energy": 42.268431, "activity_lines": [ 132.720573, 131.08582, 131.017396, 129.541519 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }