{ "ticker": { "uuid": "667cab5b-0364-4526-ba27-e44cbc2446f9", "symbol": "301057", "name": "Zhejiang Huilong New Materials Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.717, "architecture_energy": 69.071, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.593, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.06, "rotation_up": 15.17, "upward_expansion": 13.91, "deceleration": 45.7, "rotation_down": 71.63, "downward_expansion": 89.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.995333, 21.440909, 24.977616, 27.725404 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.24, "trend_reference": 31.401326, "distance_from_trend": -0.323595, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.972195, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119533, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.427854, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.436489, "excess_performance": -0.443889, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.323595, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062772, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.119533, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.714534, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.294279, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.330881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.436489, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.635489, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15382940, "relative_activity": 1.481212, "balance": 0.635489, "dry_up": 1.452439, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168925, "annualized_volatility": 0.616529, "from_high_reference": -0.549239, "from_low_reference": 0.322541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.401326, "fair_value_reference": 18.972195, "structural_low": 16.059999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.006083, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.03507, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.126121, "worst_return": -0.227577, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011955, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.00684, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.275831, "worst_return": -0.220833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.030006, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.083375, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.054807, "worst_return": -0.318697, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.5319, "energy": 91.975083, "activity_lines": [ 21.951333, 24.511692, 27.663484, 30.153287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.4, "volume": 15613486, "typical_volume": 10646400.2, "trend": 32.303118, "fair_value": 18.921951, "relative_strength": -36.661897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.152893, "energy": 90.275282, "activity_lines": [ 20.414667, 23.017645, 26.558588, 29.232022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.6, "volume": 17913221, "typical_volume": 10548979.35, "trend": 31.889464, "fair_value": 18.942785, "relative_strength": -31.456581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.368128, "energy": 84.28268, "activity_lines": [ 19.811333, 21.954727, 25.650667, 28.412466 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.24, "volume": 15382940, "typical_volume": 10385372.05, "trend": 31.401326, "fair_value": 18.972195, "relative_strength": -29.427854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.716659, "energy": 69.071269, "activity_lines": [ 19.995333, 21.440909, 24.977616, 27.725404 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }