{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6686d9b4-1318-4e83-81d5-9ba678fa4936", "symbol": "ALMAS", "name": "Mastrad Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.408, "architecture_energy": 88.555, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.091, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 8.13, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 81.32, "downward_expansion": 97.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002147, 0.003064, 0.004103, 0.004678 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0022, "trend_reference": 0.00559, "distance_from_trend": -0.60644, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.012038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.817252, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -74.601502, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.65625, "excess_performance": -0.709561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.60644, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.239456, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.817252, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228175, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.746015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.309491, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.65625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.064737, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 467241, "relative_activity": 0.212748, "balance": 0.064737, "dry_up": 0.5323, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.367133, "annualized_volatility": 1.122843, "from_high_reference": -0.876404, "from_low_reference": 0.692308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.00559, "fair_value_reference": 0.012038, "structural_low": 0.0013, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.052827, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": -0.056494, "regime_survival": 0.886364, "best_return": 0.525, "worst_return": -0.490566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.275926, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.279332, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.897436, "worst_return": -0.509091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.438119, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.370816, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.568182, "worst_return": -0.75, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -75.018006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.29959, "energy": 94.584861, "activity_lines": [ 0.003053, 0.003936, 0.00471, 0.005204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0016, "volume": 1582876, "typical_volume": 2179995.9, "trend": 0.005863, "fair_value": 0.012155, "relative_strength": -81.617669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.538573, "energy": 96.104506, "activity_lines": [ 0.00238, 0.003409, 0.004367, 0.004914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0022, "volume": 467241, "typical_volume": 2196216.7, "trend": 0.00559, "fair_value": 0.012038, "relative_strength": -74.601502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.407878, "energy": 88.554618, "activity_lines": [ 0.002147, 0.003064, 0.004103, 0.004678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }