{ "ticker": { "uuid": "668fe7b4-00e2-4369-b866-ec8bb040d012", "symbol": "JBH", "name": "JB Hi-Fi Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 81.475, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.478, "architecture_energy": 43.025, "architecture_maturity": 21.039, "architecture_confidence": 50.563, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.59, "rotation_up": 57.09, "upward_expansion": 51.99, "deceleration": 31.6, "rotation_down": 23.05, "downward_expansion": 17.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.019999, 79.841817, 77.813047, 77.287627 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 84.360001, "trend_reference": 77.537596, "distance_from_trend": 0.087988, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 76.462501, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.103286, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.428462, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.073201, "excess_performance": 0.009496, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087988, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05839, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.103286, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102609, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094285, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137557, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073201, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.736909, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2398835, "relative_activity": 1.355586, "balance": 1.736909, "dry_up": 1.112682, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056106, "annualized_volatility": 0.32778, "from_high_reference": -0.282039, "from_low_reference": 0.252004 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.537596, "fair_value_reference": 76.462501, "structural_low": 67.379997, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.038051, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.023679, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.087101, "worst_return": -0.071114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.097106, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.071791, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.186681, "worst_return": -0.001673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.108859, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.031711, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.32109, "worst_return": -0.096887, 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"trend": 77.537596, "fair_value": 76.462501, "relative_strength": -9.428462, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.477762, "energy": 43.024683, "activity_lines": [ 81.019999, 79.841817, 77.813047, 77.287627 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }