{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66912c6c-0340-42a7-87fa-ad2413a7ce61", "symbol": "PREMIER", "name": "Premier Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.485, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.277, "architecture_energy": 37.967, "architecture_maturity": 23.079, "architecture_confidence": 85.088, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.51, "rotation_up": 15.21, "upward_expansion": 8.23, "deceleration": 39.9, "rotation_down": 60.04, "downward_expansion": 81.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.876667, 2.915455, 2.937429, 2.941355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.84, "trend_reference": 2.953667, "distance_from_trend": -0.038483, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.490577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.186381, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.216887, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.071895, "excess_performance": -0.028186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038483, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012262, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.186381, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027648, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082169, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005307, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071895, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.4487, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40752, "relative_activity": 0.269771, "balance": 1.4487, "dry_up": 0.198497, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074215, "annualized_volatility": 0.273663, "from_high_reference": -0.268041, "from_low_reference": 0.083969 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.953667, "fair_value_reference": 3.490577, "structural_low": 2.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.020244, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.039194, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.447619, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.092593, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.069181, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.666667, "worst_return": -0.175978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.119048, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.023012, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.321429, "worst_return": -0.169014, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.059524, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.027082, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.474074, "worst_return": -0.092965, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.242424, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089744, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066806, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120283, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09116, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.057971, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061972, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055402, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097744, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.108939, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016949, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065789, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.05, "volume": 20255, "typical_volume": 30854.3, "trend": 2.485, "fair_value": 4.059615, "relative_strength": -35.148642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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"typical_volume": 153848.1, "trend": 2.964, "fair_value": 3.477372, "relative_strength": -5.767415, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.875113, "energy": 2.438244, "activity_lines": [ 2.974, 2.977455, 2.963429, 2.962258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.84, "volume": 12824, "typical_volume": 153039.25, "trend": 2.962, "fair_value": 3.480192, "relative_strength": -6.22271, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.42544, "energy": 19.398393, "activity_lines": [ 2.928667, 2.953636, 2.953, 2.954258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.88, "volume": 35749, "typical_volume": 151838.45, "trend": 2.958, "fair_value": 3.485192, "relative_strength": -6.732769, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.622211, "energy": 29.427362, "activity_lines": [ 2.906, 2.937091, 2.947286, 2.948968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.84, "volume": 40752, "typical_volume": 151061.55, "trend": 2.953667, "fair_value": 3.490577, "relative_strength": -8.216887, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.276735, "energy": 37.967051, "activity_lines": [ 2.876667, 2.915455, 2.937429, 2.941355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }