{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66925499-e1f7-415c-b1f1-bd776244b945", "symbol": "LIEN", "name": "Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.723, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.765, "architecture_energy": 15.621, "architecture_maturity": 17.81, "architecture_confidence": 49.297, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.73, "rotation_up": 18.18, "upward_expansion": 16.12, "deceleration": 67.63, "rotation_down": 49.66, "downward_expansion": 36.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.462333, 9.612663, 9.560562, 9.53906 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.5, "trend_reference": 9.587445, "distance_from_trend": -0.009121, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.018498, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05339, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.470727, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.02602, "excess_performance": -0.213474, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009121, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008458, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.05339, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050136, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144707, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098075, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02602, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.894361, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 208571, "relative_activity": 0.606708, "balance": 1.894361, "dry_up": 0.673711, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048248, "annualized_volatility": 0.198508, "from_high_reference": -0.117658, "from_low_reference": 0.101306 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.587445, "fair_value_reference": 9.018498, "structural_low": 8.626124, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.0251, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.011542, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.096706, "worst_return": -0.065882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018356, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038135, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.182656, "worst_return": -0.143017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.025426, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.143223, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.024251, "worst_return": -0.053197, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.380893, "energy": 24.872706, "activity_lines": [ 9.847509, 9.790796, 9.591341, 9.586769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.4, "volume": 247996, "typical_volume": 350179.8, "trend": 9.629111, "fair_value": 8.976421, "relative_strength": -11.280672, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.376019, "energy": 5.148389, "activity_lines": [ 9.687, 9.733327, 9.581537, 9.570891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.24, "volume": 267515, "typical_volume": 354366.35, "trend": 9.604266, "fair_value": 8.998156, "relative_strength": -12.914204, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.972421, "energy": 15.84009, "activity_lines": [ 9.506667, 9.646412, 9.557859, 9.545787 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.5, "volume": 208571, "typical_volume": 343774.65, "trend": 9.587445, "fair_value": 9.018498, "relative_strength": -14.470727, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.764842, "energy": 15.62069, "activity_lines": [ 9.462333, 9.612663, 9.560562, 9.53906 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }