{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6693a33b-af1a-43b5-95fe-1453498ae4fe", "symbol": "ASTE", "name": "Astec Industries Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.353, "architecture_energy": 52.609, "architecture_maturity": 28.874, "architecture_confidence": 78.905, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.04, "rotation_up": 12.18, "upward_expansion": 10.01, "deceleration": 39.96, "rotation_down": 63.67, "downward_expansion": 76.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.659333, 53.243636, 53.682045, 54.17582 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 44.25, "trend_reference": 54.35612, "distance_from_trend": -0.185924, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.840601, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.083481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.613036, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.225699, "excess_performance": -0.413153, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185924, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059436, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.083481, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244528, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.23613, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171441, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.225699, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.642461, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2586699, "relative_activity": 2.452334, "balance": 0.642461, "dry_up": 1.265188, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124187, "annualized_volatility": 0.535421, "from_high_reference": -0.324596, "from_low_reference": 0.098792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.35612, "fair_value_reference": 40.840601, "structural_low": 43.365, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.010562, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.020366, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.236153, "worst_return": -0.19139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.104689, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.007292, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.14525, "worst_return": -0.196246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055374, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.049214, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.313777, "worst_return": 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"typical_volume": 1051089.85, "trend": 53.890887, "fair_value": 40.816902, "relative_strength": -1.004563, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.279546, "energy": 34.849022, "activity_lines": [ 56.858, 55.240364, 54.930867, 54.903904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.4, "volume": 814270, "typical_volume": 1020822.9, "trend": 54.24806, "fair_value": 40.880832, "relative_strength": 2.690879, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.216672, "energy": 24.158067, "activity_lines": [ 56.560667, 55.785091, 55.075462, 55.065782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.66, "volume": 1187887, "typical_volume": 1013950.2, "trend": 54.456356, "fair_value": 40.883361, "relative_strength": -8.388975, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.562287, "energy": 8.721729, "activity_lines": [ 54.331333, 55.116, 54.679038, 54.834295 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.25, "volume": 2586699, "typical_volume": 1054790.7, "trend": 54.35612, "fair_value": 40.840601, "relative_strength": -23.613036, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.353005, "energy": 52.608553, "activity_lines": [ 50.659333, 53.243636, 53.682045, 54.17582 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }