{ "ticker": { "uuid": "669528d6-c140-4eb1-a758-778f8710b82f", "symbol": "PE1", "name": "Pengana Private Equity Trust", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.08, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.527, "architecture_energy": 46.912, "architecture_maturity": 14.68, "architecture_confidence": 73.134, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.41, "rotation_up": 18.62, "upward_expansion": 15.17, "deceleration": 49.74, "rotation_down": 67.38, "downward_expansion": 56.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.447333, 1.485629, 1.577531, 1.583416 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.405, "trend_reference": 1.57599, "distance_from_trend": -0.108497, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.295382, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084622, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.770912, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.093548, "excess_performance": -0.157254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108497, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047327, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.282189, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087709, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.380432, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093548, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.760527, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1719999, "relative_activity": 0.974699, "balance": 0.760527, "dry_up": 0.824049, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093238, "annualized_volatility": 0.348593, "from_high_reference": -0.29397, "from_low_reference": 0.148141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.57599, "fair_value_reference": 1.295382, "structural_low": 1.365, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001836, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028661, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.048276, "worst_return": -0.042372, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.044545, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.059195, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061804, "worst_return": -0.027132, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.09042, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.075499, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.247055, "worst_return": 0.040347, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035087, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.152171, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015565, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015325, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056408, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", 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1.562547, "fair_value": 1.29228, "relative_strength": 5.816238, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.861745, "energy": 33.357376, "activity_lines": [ 1.531029, 1.613879, 1.641335, 1.613633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.495, "volume": 1338349, "typical_volume": 1751769.05, "trend": 1.568502, "fair_value": 1.293144, "relative_strength": 2.798523, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.313184, "energy": 40.539141, "activity_lines": [ 1.504388, 1.581703, 1.629313, 1.609275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.48, "volume": 1306664, "typical_volume": 1750458.6, "trend": 1.572657, "fair_value": 1.294138, "relative_strength": 1.751094, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.022823, "energy": 51.033151, "activity_lines": [ 1.490876, 1.551254, 1.615838, 1.603565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.43, "volume": 1451614, "typical_volume": 1765721.85, "trend": 1.574657, "fair_value": 1.294812, "relative_strength": -4.089065, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.535511, "energy": 44.180311, "activity_lines": [ 1.471667, 1.516623, 1.597696, 1.594362 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.405, "volume": 1719999, "typical_volume": 1764647.1, "trend": 1.57599, "fair_value": 1.295382, "relative_strength": -8.770912, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.52727, "energy": 46.912283, "activity_lines": [ 1.447333, 1.485629, 1.577531, 1.583416 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }