{ "ticker": { "uuid": "669e5aac-350d-4cf1-84e8-3adb458e4884", "symbol": "002348", "name": "Goldlok Holdings(Guangdong) Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.099, "architecture_energy": 14.463, "architecture_maturity": 60.731, "architecture_confidence": 91.235, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.15, "rotation_up": 25.77, "upward_expansion": 42.48, "deceleration": 83.89, "rotation_down": 33.34, "downward_expansion": 34.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.678, 10.698727, 11.213333, 10.629763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.17, "trend_reference": 9.589, "distance_from_trend": 0.269163, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.681026, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.599858, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 61.891605, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.014901, "excess_performance": 1.007501, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.269163, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241938, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.599858, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.43888, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.618916, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272777, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.014901, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.742646, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 241671528, "relative_activity": 1.936437, "balance": 0.742646, "dry_up": 1.254648, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158397, "annualized_volatility": 0.753606, "from_high_reference": -0.24363, "from_low_reference": 2.371191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.589, "fair_value_reference": 4.681026, "structural_low": 5.99, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.05042, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.029631, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.14881, "worst_return": -0.160622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.124481, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.161759, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.04375, "worst_return": -0.182773, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.13278, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.044455, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.19375, "worst_return": -0.266807, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156805, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.259375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104972, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04902, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017595, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.75, "volume": 93402864, "typical_volume": 120619710.8, "trend": 9.375, "fair_value": 4.628077, "relative_strength": 39.283955, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.634222, "energy": 14.385438, "activity_lines": [ 10.023333, 10.541091, 11.07081, 10.449441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.17, "volume": 241671528, "typical_volume": 124802169.2, "trend": 9.589, "fair_value": 4.681026, "relative_strength": 61.891605, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.09863, "energy": 14.463417, "activity_lines": [ 10.678, 10.698727, 11.213333, 10.629763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }