{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66a02f54-87b0-4256-9d95-faf0187f4cb1", "symbol": "600984", "name": "Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 55.005, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.152, "architecture_energy": 27.264, "architecture_maturity": 22.064, "architecture_confidence": 48.202, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.28, "rotation_up": 17.04, "upward_expansion": 13.37, "deceleration": 62.78, "rotation_down": 47.25, "downward_expansion": 63.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.915333, 3.895273, 4.096714, 4.15914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.08, "trend_reference": 4.214333, "distance_from_trend": -0.031875, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.59359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.135355, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.357398, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.025126, "excess_performance": 0.068329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031875, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022801, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.135355, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161616, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003574, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112767, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025126, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.139543, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150629882, "relative_activity": 0.936312, "balance": 1.139543, "dry_up": 1.291324, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122738, "annualized_volatility": 0.661919, "from_high_reference": -0.241636, "from_low_reference": 0.373737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.214333, "fair_value_reference": 3.59359, "structural_low": 2.97, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.001698, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": 0.000288, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.202765, "worst_return": -0.245406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.056174, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.047201, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.690909, "worst_return": -0.293671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.054108, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.020524, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.530864, "worst_return": -0.341772, "sufficient": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.576963, "energy": 62.777458, "activity_lines": [ 3.910667, 4.154909, 4.245476, 4.267011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.13, "volume": 178014178, "typical_volume": 161280108.15, "trend": 4.227333, "fair_value": 3.602436, "relative_strength": -18.881888, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.414313, "energy": 79.728616, "activity_lines": [ 3.624, 3.930182, 4.133762, 4.192667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.0, "volume": 283037940, "typical_volume": 164549273.15, "trend": 4.217667, "fair_value": 3.599615, "relative_strength": 2.052436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.814844, "energy": 62.506425, "activity_lines": [ 3.699333, 3.892364, 4.114048, 4.178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.06, "volume": 219288461, "typical_volume": 164424847.2, "trend": 4.214667, "fair_value": 3.597372, "relative_strength": 2.887504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.083101, "energy": 40.559539, "activity_lines": [ 3.804, 3.884182, 4.103571, 4.167828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.08, "volume": 150629882, "typical_volume": 160875704.95, "trend": 4.214333, "fair_value": 3.59359, "relative_strength": 0.357398, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.152265, "energy": 27.264457, "activity_lines": [ 3.915333, 3.895273, 4.096714, 4.15914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }