{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66a5dd80-f213-45a1-81ec-9482d7200a4b", "symbol": "MVR", "name": "VanEck Australian Resources ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.832, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.769, "architecture_energy": 24.214, "architecture_maturity": 15.339, "architecture_confidence": 58.107, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.29, "rotation_up": 19.73, "upward_expansion": 11.71, "deceleration": 60.81, "rotation_down": 47.36, "downward_expansion": 70.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.592, 45.561194, 46.506487, 46.748204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 48.139999, "trend_reference": 46.893243, "distance_from_trend": 0.026587, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.375731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.32341, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.797863, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.07216, "excess_performance": 0.008455, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026587, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026107, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.32341, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051823, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037979, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158637, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07216, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.064172, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 282438, "relative_activity": 1.530708, "balance": 1.064172, "dry_up": 1.348644, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039827, "annualized_volatility": 0.225352, "from_high_reference": -0.054038, "from_low_reference": 0.358225 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.893243, "fair_value_reference": 36.375731, "structural_low": 42.610001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.014715, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010637, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.147584, "worst_return": -0.072085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003448, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.012405, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.139404, "worst_return": -0.073411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042947, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.029151, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.265245, "worst_return": -0.04696, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.742513, "energy": 16.145548, "activity_lines": [ 47.920989, 48.125022, 47.905868, 47.405514 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 45.087662, "volume": 55324, "typical_volume": 192017.1, "trend": 46.512989, "fair_value": 35.966609, "relative_strength": 5.631486, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.787225, "energy": 17.108107, "activity_lines": [ 46.904336, 47.54024, 47.673933, 47.320007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 46.060001, "volume": 31233, "typical_volume": 184795.4, "trend": 46.632233, "fair_value": 36.04606, "relative_strength": 6.34564, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.397841, "energy": 34.93599, "activity_lines": [ 46.432378, 47.216108, 47.533708, 47.290782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 44.490002, "volume": 176075, "typical_volume": 182044.3, "trend": 46.672853, "fair_value": 36.104613, "relative_strength": 2.692858, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.767045, "energy": 56.264851, "activity_lines": [ 45.635647, 46.649977, 47.244578, 47.152574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.43, "volume": 249713, "typical_volume": 185516.55, "trend": 46.707717, "fair_value": 36.16103, "relative_strength": -0.074131, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.665483, "energy": 70.531307, "activity_lines": [ 44.719669, 45.940054, 46.865163, 46.943357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.330002, "volume": 218379, "typical_volume": 182079.65, "trend": 46.726243, "fair_value": 36.22211, "relative_strength": 1.835604, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.25099, "energy": 64.127921, "activity_lines": [ 44.403179, 45.488197, 46.599176, 46.789956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.709999, "volume": 244848, "typical_volume": 183851.3, "trend": 46.770909, "fair_value": 36.287782, "relative_strength": -0.05706, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.668018, "energy": 69.284758, "activity_lines": [ 44.413334, 45.179365, 46.385236, 46.659876 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.139999, "volume": 282438, "typical_volume": 184514.6, "trend": 46.893243, "fair_value": 36.375731, "relative_strength": 3.797863, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.76872, "energy": 24.214287, "activity_lines": [ 45.592, 45.561194, 46.506487, 46.748204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }