{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66a7c3ed-3af3-46f1-81d4-b762a9e0fa03", "symbol": "BZAI", "name": "Blaize Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.612, "architecture_energy": 74.379, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.558, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.56, "rotation_up": 10.42, "upward_expansion": 17.29, "deceleration": 37.12, "rotation_down": 74.2, "downward_expansion": 92.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.982113, 1.11974, 1.353637, 1.419724 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.1, "trend_reference": 1.486793, "distance_from_trend": -0.260153, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.646951, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.834511, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.313741, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.133858, "excess_performance": -0.321312, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.260153, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200792, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.834511, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087004, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.573137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163669, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133858, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.500239, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14935753, "relative_activity": 0.38191, "balance": 0.500239, "dry_up": 0.428849, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.284776, "annualized_volatility": 1.249783, "from_high_reference": -0.837278, "from_low_reference": 0.489102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.486793, "fair_value_reference": 6.646951, "structural_low": 0.7387, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.101563, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.108908, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.774908, "worst_return": -0.49, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.193331, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.280058, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.405204, "worst_return": -0.551667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.361329, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.474784, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.352657, "worst_return": -0.37, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.531667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.241164, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.314763, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.510684, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.196, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028986, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.475369, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.217488, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.48, "volume": 319, "typical_volume": 108922.55, "trend": 10.317, "fair_value": 10.110816, "relative_strength": -12.043425, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.312575, "energy": 53.779787, "activity_lines": [ 10.5, 10.491455, 10.422857, 10.36986 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 10.48, "volume": 317866, "typical_volume": 124497.15, "trend": 10.324333, "fair_value": 10.115318, "relative_strength": -13.271711, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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"close": 1.065, "volume": 18556748, "typical_volume": 38254780.1, "trend": 1.600667, "fair_value": 6.831029, "relative_strength": -60.464833, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.452954, "energy": 58.585229, "activity_lines": [ 1.241, 1.358364, 1.533571, 1.541774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9035, "volume": 16596250, "typical_volume": 38418651.0, "trend": 1.563783, "fair_value": 6.769705, "relative_strength": -64.806127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.805753, "energy": 70.099148, "activity_lines": [ 1.107833, 1.264727, 1.469881, 1.496796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7903, "volume": 16997014, "typical_volume": 38829277.5, "trend": 1.521127, "fair_value": 6.707335, "relative_strength": -68.462274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.497542, "energy": 76.589561, "activity_lines": [ 0.9707, 1.1579, 1.396298, 1.446894 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.1, "volume": 14935753, "typical_volume": 39108057.85, "trend": 1.486793, "fair_value": 6.646951, "relative_strength": -57.313741, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.611592, "energy": 74.378573, "activity_lines": [ 0.982113, 1.11974, 1.353637, 1.419724 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }