{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66aa69f8-a1fb-4231-a698-e4bedff3c037", "symbol": "BATT", "name": "L&G Battery Value-Chain UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.101, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.236, "architecture_energy": 66.331, "architecture_maturity": 11.228, "architecture_confidence": 79.373, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.68, "rotation_up": 14.17, "upward_expansion": 30.33, "deceleration": 49.13, "rotation_down": 74.01, "downward_expansion": 60.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.12, 28.332909, 30.142333, 30.044236 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 27.68, "trend_reference": 29.615166, "distance_from_trend": -0.065344, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.300385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.434168, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.942129, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033993, "excess_performance": -0.136898, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065344, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057496, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.434168, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.482682, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099421, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.451521, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033993, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.643519, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63505, "relative_activity": 0.557899, "balance": 0.643519, "dry_up": 0.537034, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068753, "annualized_volatility": 0.321493, "from_high_reference": -0.222253, "from_low_reference": 0.544815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.615166, "fair_value_reference": 19.300385, "structural_low": 25.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001597, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018768, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.069507, "worst_return": -0.048284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023379, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.003177, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.086159, "worst_return": -0.117147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.14002, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.029909, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.368715, "worst_return": -0.069084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.077737, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.030672, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.810322, "worst_return": -0.109117, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051973, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038176, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024446, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016086, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033103, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142192, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.120705, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072157, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.444982, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097355, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004229, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031105, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.063999, "volume": 174869, "typical_volume": 250412.65, "trend": 16.953533, "fair_value": 15.176705, "relative_strength": -10.530456, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.045786, 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"energy": 23.3055, "activity_lines": [ 31.214, 32.164363, 31.745762, 30.737129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.834999, "volume": 68993, "typical_volume": 130322.6, "trend": 29.4425, "fair_value": 19.05734, "relative_strength": -3.103894, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.113222, "energy": 24.482984, "activity_lines": [ 30.278333, 31.442272, 31.566976, 30.706946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.084999, "volume": 65986, "typical_volume": 125011.2, "trend": 29.5085, "fair_value": 19.115167, "relative_strength": -8.012052, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.406759, "energy": 47.385204, "activity_lines": [ 29.010333, 30.489636, 31.216714, 30.554849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.844999, "volume": 48826, "typical_volume": 118336.15, "trend": 29.563, "fair_value": 19.172558, "relative_strength": -8.93134, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.576233, "energy": 67.926591, "activity_lines": [ 27.993999, 29.636363, 30.851142, 30.38301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.215, "volume": 66203, "typical_volume": 116697.25, "trend": 29.583, "fair_value": 19.230282, "relative_strength": -11.929975, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.132992, "energy": 73.450538, "activity_lines": [ 27.184999, 28.785181, 30.424476, 30.16701 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.68, "volume": 63505, "typical_volume": 113828.85, "trend": 29.615166, "fair_value": 19.300385, "relative_strength": -9.942129, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.236066, "energy": 66.330563, "activity_lines": [ 27.12, 28.332909, 30.142333, 30.044236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }