{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66ab095a-5ca4-407a-bf61-78365aed9760", "symbol": "RKH", "name": "Rockhopper Exploration plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.462, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.489, "architecture_energy": 7.153, "architecture_maturity": 13.196, "architecture_confidence": 62.022, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.34, "rotation_up": 30.17, "upward_expansion": 18.74, "deceleration": 46.61, "rotation_down": 24.93, "downward_expansion": 30.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.733533, 0.729545, 0.74829, 0.754088 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.743, "trend_reference": 0.752233, "distance_from_trend": -0.012275, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.410811, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.808619, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.575318, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.031944, "excess_performance": -0.019291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012275, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010804, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.808619, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.449334, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095753, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166717, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031944, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.164712, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5415760, "relative_activity": 0.575594, "balance": 0.164712, "dry_up": 0.643294, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080443, "annualized_volatility": 0.369036, "from_high_reference": -0.203823, "from_low_reference": 0.136086 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.752233, "fair_value_reference": 0.410811, "structural_low": 0.677, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.018077, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003949, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.313008, "worst_return": -0.071207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.05305, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.105303, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.487805, "worst_return": -0.092486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.431707, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.340563, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.630058, "worst_return": -0.142308, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.119075, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.067109, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.441057, "worst_return": 0.030769, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078014, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064639, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.666667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.186992, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.184466, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055703, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.275481, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059032, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059952, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044099, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015027, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.12425, "volume": 1661144, "typical_volume": 3667739.6, "trend": 0.119305, "fair_value": 0.092568, "relative_strength": 9.035121, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.561986, 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"trend": 0.7506, "fair_value": 0.399118, "relative_strength": -8.57959, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.89321, "energy": 16.933306, "activity_lines": [ 0.723933, 0.730691, 0.758224, 0.757305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.732, "volume": 8418710, "typical_volume": 10294181.3, "trend": 0.751, "fair_value": 0.403026, "relative_strength": -10.288195, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.083382, "energy": 15.726257, "activity_lines": [ 0.7282, 0.728782, 0.754757, 0.756105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.728, "volume": 6793523, "typical_volume": 10047738.2, "trend": 0.751267, "fair_value": 0.406849, "relative_strength": -11.489466, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.575038, "energy": 12.486511, "activity_lines": [ 0.729, 0.727291, 0.750852, 0.754622 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.743, "volume": 5415760, "typical_volume": 9408992.75, "trend": 0.752233, "fair_value": 0.410811, "relative_strength": -9.575318, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.488698, "energy": 7.152933, "activity_lines": [ 0.733533, 0.729545, 0.74829, 0.754088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }