{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66ab5634-3f0e-43a8-b0b5-5bdd51dd47c1", "symbol": "CDA", "name": "Compagnie des Alpes SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.072, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.287, "architecture_energy": 71.146, "architecture_maturity": 22.442, "architecture_confidence": 93.998, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.04, "rotation_up": 14.15, "upward_expansion": 16.46, "deceleration": 37.99, "rotation_down": 69.34, "downward_expansion": 92.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.083333, 21.550909, 22.052381, 22.70575 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.049999, "trend_reference": 23.533401, "distance_from_trend": -0.105527, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.509607, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.784228, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.182207, "excess_performance": -0.235518, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105527, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001518, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275015, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115828, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127842, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114356, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.182207, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.407454, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 138983, "relative_activity": 1.02704, "balance": 0.407454, "dry_up": 1.597976, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052183, "annualized_volatility": 0.264743, "from_high_reference": -0.240016, "from_low_reference": 0.132556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.533401, "fair_value_reference": 16.509607, "structural_low": 18.719999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.064999, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.06931, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.166154, "worst_return": -0.053333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.134146, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.074709, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.186992, "worst_return": 0.086154, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.145963, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.071898, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.243577, "worst_return": -0.023077, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 129024.65, "trend": 23.76434, "fair_value": 16.384371, "relative_strength": -8.69357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.49903, "energy": 50.729724, "activity_lines": [ 21.8, 22.059091, 22.466357, 23.093255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.35, "volume": 426029, "typical_volume": 140555.35, "trend": 23.641979, "fair_value": 16.44453, "relative_strength": -13.891511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.052472, "energy": 74.118733, "activity_lines": [ 21.253333, 21.721818, 22.215476, 22.872975 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.049999, "volume": 138983, "typical_volume": 135323.8, "trend": 23.533401, "fair_value": 16.509607, "relative_strength": -12.784228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.286761, "energy": 71.146448, "activity_lines": [ 21.083333, 21.550909, 22.052381, 22.70575 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }