{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66ad1c5b-d40b-4e17-ac31-f976ccb497bf", "symbol": "SNEC34", "name": "Sony Group Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 73.701, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.379, "architecture_energy": 44.007, "architecture_maturity": 12.16, "architecture_confidence": 60.73, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.02, "rotation_up": 62.2, "upward_expansion": 46.68, "deceleration": 24.2, "rotation_down": 15.15, "downward_expansion": 21.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 113.983998, 110.876181, 109.094238, 109.142506 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 119.269997, "trend_reference": 110.742751, "distance_from_trend": 0.077, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 100.380982, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188173, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.348111, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.036111, "excess_performance": 0.093159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101864, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188173, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169914, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083481, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.251529, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.689947, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4163, "relative_activity": 1.900219, "balance": 0.689947, "dry_up": 1.301693, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057716, "annualized_volatility": 0.364113, "from_high_reference": -0.263238, "from_low_reference": 0.229461 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 110.742751, "fair_value_reference": 100.380982, "structural_low": 97.010002, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.06068, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.034528, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.192998, "worst_return": -0.123334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.148409, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.098693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.391735, "worst_return": -0.032646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.072125, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.113042, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.47348, "worst_return": 0.059507, 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101.870003, "volume": 423, "typical_volume": 2051.6, "trend": 116.892114, "fair_value": 98.855903, "relative_strength": -24.492351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.684391, "energy": 40.521681, "activity_lines": [ 105.208669, 106.502547, 106.928142, 110.055079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 110.040001, "volume": 104, "typical_volume": 1884.55, "trend": 115.45505, "fair_value": 99.095915, "relative_strength": -18.567869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.024477, "energy": 29.758243, "activity_lines": [ 106.338668, 107.244547, 107.064158, 109.613007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 107.019997, "volume": 3486, "typical_volume": 2034.1, "trend": 114.198756, "fair_value": 99.31815, "relative_strength": -21.987543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.959413, "energy": 24.956699, "activity_lines": [ 106.390667, 107.284001, 106.962963, 109.06881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 108.0, "volume": 1553, "typical_volume": 1946.85, "trend": 113.105049, "fair_value": 99.54365, "relative_strength": -18.935087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.300643, "energy": 18.221593, "activity_lines": [ 107.156, 107.374001, 106.983577, 108.66889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 107.129997, "volume": 846, "typical_volume": 1892.15, "trend": 111.98068, "fair_value": 99.765647, "relative_strength": -19.208191, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.779572, "energy": 10.246698, "activity_lines": [ 107.377332, 107.145818, 106.968117, 108.283403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 117.25, "volume": 4845, "typical_volume": 2077.75, "trend": 111.223216, "fair_value": 100.056508, "relative_strength": -13.134783, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.292897, "energy": 14.192089, "activity_lines": [ 110.856666, 108.876, 107.942709, 108.623359 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 119.269997, "volume": 4163, "typical_volume": 2190.8, "trend": 110.742751, "fair_value": 100.380982, "relative_strength": -8.348111, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.378964, "energy": 44.007285, "activity_lines": [ 113.983998, 110.876181, 109.094238, 109.142506 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }