{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66b96716-e539-4011-98c6-cb2287dc3d60", "symbol": "WEGE3", "name": "WEG S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.019, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 3.888, "architecture_energy": 10.378, "architecture_maturity": 9.281, "architecture_confidence": 65.234, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.13, "rotation_up": 35.62, "upward_expansion": 34.9, "deceleration": 35.96, "rotation_down": 19.99, "downward_expansion": 43.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.742667, 46.198936, 45.631389, 46.189116 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 48.119999, "trend_reference": 47.149754, "distance_from_trend": 0.020578, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.070324, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143799, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.10964, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.069912, "excess_performance": -0.012864, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020578, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000297, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.143799, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043694, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051096, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147216, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069912, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.965755, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31929500, "relative_activity": 1.060517, "balance": 1.965755, "dry_up": 1.50853, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052403, "annualized_volatility": 0.302268, "from_high_reference": -0.115623, "from_low_reference": 0.421601 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.149754, "fair_value_reference": 42.070324, "structural_low": 41.414016, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.067223, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.037428, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.120325, "worst_return": -0.149237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.071001, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.063729, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.097557, "worst_return": -0.249762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.109331, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.024578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136218, "worst_return": -0.247267, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054097, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096697, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.088635, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048319, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.043004, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024065, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052504, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006319, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081826, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019492, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 33.573734, "volume": 41588700, "typical_volume": 36184380.0, "trend": 35.774198, "fair_value": 32.0441, "relative_strength": -6.562425, "stage": 3, "regime": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.630001, "volume": 38707000, "typical_volume": 27872680.0, "trend": 47.199029, "fair_value": 41.882492, "relative_strength": -5.283439, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.458153, "energy": 25.715899, "activity_lines": [ 45.499038, 44.866452, 45.297833, 46.194192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.990002, "volume": 68329700, "typical_volume": 29343420.0, "trend": 47.110569, "fair_value": 41.937986, "relative_strength": -0.386962, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.456281, "energy": 15.606801, "activity_lines": [ 45.590667, 45.171755, 45.30304, 46.11619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.2, "volume": 42706000, "typical_volume": 30156760.0, "trend": 47.079073, "fair_value": 41.99809, "relative_strength": -0.006875, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.199283, "energy": 6.805656, "activity_lines": [ 46.023334, 45.643244, 45.426002, 46.12196 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.119999, "volume": 31929500, "typical_volume": 30107485.0, "trend": 47.149754, "fair_value": 42.070324, "relative_strength": 5.10964, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.888117, "energy": 10.377815, "activity_lines": [ 46.742667, 46.198936, 45.631389, 46.189116 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }