{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66c0647b-c118-4176-a8b1-e1a06118662a", "symbol": "GC40", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - AMUNDI CAC 40 ESG UCITS ETF DR - EUR (C)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.51, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.73, "architecture_energy": 62.53, "architecture_maturity": 22.604, "architecture_confidence": 83.314, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.86, "rotation_up": 57.27, "upward_expansion": 81.69, "deceleration": 55.84, "rotation_down": 22.58, "downward_expansion": 10.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.350671, 149.61273, 146.899144, 144.945291 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 154.240005, "trend_reference": 143.416667, "distance_from_trend": 0.075468, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 131.933461, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169074, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.034415, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068144, "excess_performance": 0.003504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075468, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013507, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169074, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083403, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000344, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006403, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068144, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.025609, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16019, "relative_activity": 1.041585, "balance": 1.025609, "dry_up": 0.931893, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023051, "annualized_volatility": 0.178532, "from_high_reference": -0.002587, "from_low_reference": 0.210485 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 143.416667, "fair_value_reference": 131.933461, "structural_low": 127.419998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.007817, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.005289, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.103558, "worst_return": -0.117432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.002448, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.004218, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.106264, "worst_return": -0.099421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.055618, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.015629, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.128171, "worst_return": -0.153535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 147.899994, "volume": 22939, "typical_volume": 14522.55, "trend": 142.719333, "fair_value": 131.158974, "relative_strength": 0.991646, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.559008, "energy": 73.820338, "activity_lines": [ 149.197333, 147.254908, 144.05457, 143.196386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 147.580002, "volume": 14657, "typical_volume": 15083.65, "trend": 142.853333, "fair_value": 131.33282, "relative_strength": 1.640701, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.865064, "energy": 65.188679, "activity_lines": [ 148.738667, 147.670908, 144.594761, 143.509978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 147.240005, "volume": 16413, "typical_volume": 15278.05, "trend": 143.007333, "fair_value": 131.500513, "relative_strength": 0.269629, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.403039, "energy": 44.422329, "activity_lines": [ 148.141335, 147.899273, 145.107524, 143.792989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 149.820007, "volume": 10239, "typical_volume": 15401.9, "trend": 143.192, "fair_value": 131.703846, "relative_strength": -0.140272, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.456767, "energy": 42.219192, "activity_lines": [ 148.537337, 148.429457, 145.826477, 144.232516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 154.240005, "volume": 16019, "typical_volume": 15379.45, "trend": 143.416667, "fair_value": 131.933461, "relative_strength": 0.034415, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.730464, "energy": 62.530217, "activity_lines": [ 150.350671, 149.61273, 146.899144, 144.945291 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }