{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66c2c6da-0eb3-4977-a6a1-ec8d3a7e09f7", "symbol": "002962", "name": "Hubei W-olf Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.971, "architecture_energy": 76.047, "architecture_maturity": 18.722, "architecture_confidence": 81.841, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.13, "rotation_up": 8.2, "upward_expansion": 17.21, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 75.2, "downward_expansion": 90.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.5, 14.129636, 15.743747, 15.885076 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.37, "trend_reference": 15.898244, "distance_from_trend": -0.159027, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.99403, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.108312, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.624057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.129557, "excess_performance": -0.136957, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159027, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019277, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.108312, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166241, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124658, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129557, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.740353, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51967675, "relative_activity": 0.601535, "balance": 0.740353, "dry_up": 0.705475, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.185765, "annualized_volatility": 0.730584, "from_high_reference": -0.402858, "from_low_reference": 0.283109 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.898244, "fair_value_reference": 14.99403, "structural_low": 10.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.044945, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.03027, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.174362, "worst_return": -0.084473, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.034337, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.043706, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042126, "worst_return": 0.026549, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.049566, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.188106, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228658, "worst_return": -0.129525, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.184214, 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"2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100765, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057899, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003331, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026076, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041916, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049895, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"trend": 16.209244, "fair_value": 15.033956, "relative_strength": -17.394171, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.923744, "energy": 12.407524, "activity_lines": [ 16.822667, 17.722289, 17.39103, 16.883741 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.03, "volume": 72561396, "typical_volume": 82707728.8, "trend": 16.120244, "fair_value": 15.018941, "relative_strength": -23.582216, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.358443, "energy": 34.056434, "activity_lines": [ 15.103334, 16.620098, 16.935757, 16.614112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.49, "volume": 68771427, "typical_volume": 84180529.25, "trend": 16.023244, "fair_value": 15.000776, "relative_strength": -26.707543, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.299281, "energy": 61.282935, "activity_lines": [ 13.555333, 15.526311, 16.446674, 16.315387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.93, "volume": 50488651, "typical_volume": 85166952.0, "trend": 15.946577, "fair_value": 14.989484, "relative_strength": -22.175301, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.986461, "energy": 69.172726, "activity_lines": [ 12.540667, 14.633816, 16.018354, 16.051306 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.37, "volume": 51967675, "typical_volume": 86391805.95, "trend": 15.898244, "fair_value": 14.99403, "relative_strength": -16.624057, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.970604, "energy": 76.047375, "activity_lines": [ 12.5, 14.129636, 15.743747, 15.885076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }