{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66c709aa-ab0a-4020-bbd0-3119634a2ce4", "symbol": "QQCI", "name": "Invesco NASDAQ 100 Income Advantage ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.105, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.708, "architecture_energy": 29.912, "architecture_maturity": 64.983, "architecture_confidence": 82.816, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.52, "rotation_up": 31.34, "upward_expansion": 61.84, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 30.94, "downward_expansion": 20.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.727071, 24.922338, 24.731788, 24.151324 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.190001, "trend_reference": 23.437286, "distance_from_trend": 0.074783, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.796771, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211246, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.199433, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.152131, "excess_performance": 0.03171, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074783, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042785, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211246, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010817, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011994, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022221, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.152131, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.336047, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23700, "relative_activity": 1.064929, "balance": 1.336047, "dry_up": 1.16266, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028593, "annualized_volatility": 0.14098, "from_high_reference": -0.029439, "from_low_reference": 0.249792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.437286, "fair_value_reference": 20.796771, "structural_low": 20.950298, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.032618, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.036668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.032618, "worst_return": -0.032618, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.151093, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.138597, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151093, "worst_return": 0.151093, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022341, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016205, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043494, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 24.353102, "volume": 21600, "typical_volume": 21200.0, "trend": 23.275725, "fair_value": 20.718192, "relative_strength": -1.978417, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.09867, "energy": 36.768861, "activity_lines": [ 24.817755, 25.02379, 24.575279, 23.96418 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.34, "volume": 35800, "typical_volume": 22095.0, "trend": 23.353544, "fair_value": 20.7537, "relative_strength": -1.506028, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.728355, "energy": 26.507245, "activity_lines": [ 24.6039, 24.891931, 24.61938, 24.032843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.190001, "volume": 23700, "typical_volume": 22255.0, "trend": 23.437286, "fair_value": 20.796771, "relative_strength": -1.199433, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.707843, "energy": 29.911705, "activity_lines": [ 24.727071, 24.922338, 24.731788, 24.151324 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }