{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66cd9a65-e6cb-402e-9bcd-dea6c0d39dbf", "symbol": "RWI", "name": "Rayong Wire Industries Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.022, "architecture_energy": 64.543, "architecture_maturity": 73.457, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.39, "rotation_up": 18.36, "upward_expansion": 13.22, "deceleration": 39.08, "rotation_down": 64.13, "downward_expansion": 88.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.157333, 0.160182, 0.166762, 0.172516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.15, "trend_reference": 0.180333, "distance_from_trend": -0.168207, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.404744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.629395, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.498511, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.210526, "excess_performance": -0.402851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168207, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084602, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.629395, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048631, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.364985, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112693, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210526, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.093175, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3823200, "relative_activity": 1.081362, "balance": 0.093175, "dry_up": 0.709029, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092308, "annualized_volatility": 0.382359, "from_high_reference": -0.605263, "from_low_reference": 0.153846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.180333, "fair_value_reference": 0.404744, "structural_low": 0.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.051724, "positive_rate": 0.311111, "directional_follow_through": 0.622222, "median_excess_return": -0.035389, "regime_survival": 0.911111, "best_return": 0.421053, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.130435, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.182255, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.465116, "worst_return": -0.348837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.185185, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.22235, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.056338, "worst_return": -0.465116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054545, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017544, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017544, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.175439, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.183673, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", 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"direction": -53.934065, "energy": 35.423325, "activity_lines": [ 0.165333, 0.167273, 0.174095, 0.179548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.16, "volume": 2853600, "typical_volume": 3814815.0, "trend": 0.185667, "fair_value": 0.415321, "relative_strength": -35.518137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.767355, "energy": 33.528747, "activity_lines": [ 0.164, 0.165273, 0.172286, 0.177785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.16, "volume": 1083700, "typical_volume": 3612010.0, "trend": 0.184, "fair_value": 0.411795, "relative_strength": -34.943753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.275386, "energy": 38.56336, "activity_lines": [ 0.162667, 0.163818, 0.170667, 0.176129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.16, "volume": 2266700, "typical_volume": 3593965.0, "trend": 0.182, "fair_value": 0.408333, "relative_strength": -33.436387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.465386, "energy": 35.360129, "activity_lines": [ 0.161333, 0.162727, 0.169143, 0.174581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.15, "volume": 3823200, "typical_volume": 3535540.0, "trend": 0.180333, "fair_value": 0.404744, "relative_strength": -36.498511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.021998, "energy": 64.543223, "activity_lines": [ 0.157333, 0.160182, 0.166762, 0.172516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }