{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66cfcf73-6563-4b59-b42b-2617fdc48af1", "symbol": "UNV0", "name": "Unilever PLC", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 51.932, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.667, "architecture_energy": 37.131, "architecture_maturity": 15.356, "architecture_confidence": 69.46, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.78, "rotation_up": 67.67, "upward_expansion": 47.82, "deceleration": 31.56, "rotation_down": 15.98, "downward_expansion": 18.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.388929, 53.687377, 52.027489, 52.227451 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 54.669998, "trend_reference": 53.172221, "distance_from_trend": 0.028168, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.551209, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040319, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.305401, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.087402, "excess_performance": -0.152042, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028168, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011318, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096924, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063054, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050757, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087402, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.807853, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49269, "relative_activity": 0.641411, "balance": 0.807853, "dry_up": 1.07195, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038308, "annualized_volatility": 0.235664, "from_high_reference": -0.124689, "from_low_reference": 0.173479 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.172221, "fair_value_reference": 52.551209, "structural_low": 46.587946, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.018146, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034629, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.117898, "worst_return": -0.039868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024999, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.010069, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081899, "worst_return": -0.117577, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019968, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.065745, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.199947, "worst_return": -0.016981, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.595886, "volume": 48362, "typical_volume": 73130.5, "trend": 53.190604, "fair_value": 52.40918, "relative_strength": -1.168225, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.86541, "energy": 58.195008, "activity_lines": [ 53.622982, 52.214806, 51.072346, 52.004708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.225777, "volume": 60396, "typical_volume": 72651.85, "trend": 53.138389, "fair_value": 52.443992, "relative_strength": -4.610212, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.057412, "energy": 57.240112, "activity_lines": [ 53.686046, 52.601076, 51.275497, 52.006977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.04266, "volume": 171334, "typical_volume": 77582.65, "trend": 53.156918, "fair_value": 52.497645, "relative_strength": -3.261191, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.425745, "energy": 50.676415, "activity_lines": [ 54.161687, 53.230311, 51.667609, 52.129833 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.669998, "volume": 49269, "typical_volume": 76813.5, "trend": 53.172221, "fair_value": 52.551209, "relative_strength": -6.305401, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.666711, "energy": 37.130611, "activity_lines": [ 54.388929, 53.687377, 52.027489, 52.227451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }