{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66d035ca-6f1f-4a03-8833-65cb39145a9b", "symbol": "BTG", "name": "HG Metal Manufacturing Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.986, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.262, "architecture_energy": 78.338, "architecture_maturity": 31.509, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.57, "rotation_up": 26.98, "upward_expansion": 19.11, "deceleration": 39.21, "rotation_down": 56.08, "downward_expansion": 92.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.497, 0.501091, 0.523405, 0.544428 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.49, "trend_reference": 0.568858, "distance_from_trend": -0.138624, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.379181, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.292258, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.651328, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.196721, "excess_performance": -0.351556, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138624, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015693, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.292258, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.39917, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226513, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.367111, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196721, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.005734, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2700, "relative_activity": 0.007121, "balance": 0.005734, "dry_up": 0.181993, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042386, "annualized_volatility": 0.275906, "from_high_reference": -0.284672, "from_low_reference": 0.271261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.568858, "fair_value_reference": 0.379181, "structural_low": 0.475, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.003563, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.185184, "worst_return": -0.084745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062529, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.032093, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.32727, "worst_return": -0.087719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.169622, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.128133, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.309089, "worst_return": -0.161289, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.935267, "energy": 76.179788, "activity_lines": [ 0.506333, 0.512273, 0.541119, 0.558538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.505, "volume": 61000, "typical_volume": 416675.0, "trend": 0.568067, "fair_value": 0.376777, "relative_strength": -18.992443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.043576, "energy": 57.544804, "activity_lines": [ 0.506, 0.509182, 0.535667, 0.554527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.49, "volume": 135500, "typical_volume": 387675.0, "trend": 0.568462, "fair_value": 0.377979, "relative_strength": -21.834672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.022448, "energy": 62.399403, "activity_lines": [ 0.501667, 0.504545, 0.529238, 0.54949 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.49, "volume": 2700, "typical_volume": 379135.0, "trend": 0.568858, "fair_value": 0.379181, "relative_strength": -22.651328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.262075, "energy": 78.337553, "activity_lines": [ 0.497, 0.501091, 0.523405, 0.544428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }