{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66d195c5-c0ca-4955-be79-c157de44b11e", "symbol": "002455", "name": "Jiangsu Baichuan High-Tech New Materials Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.487, "architecture_energy": 78.42, "architecture_maturity": 36.937, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.66, "rotation_up": 25.38, "upward_expansion": 17.9, "deceleration": 40.58, "rotation_down": 59.93, "downward_expansion": 91.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.535333, 6.809455, 7.876952, 8.951763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.05, "trend_reference": 9.779, "distance_from_trend": -0.279067, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.882376, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.1056, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.035801, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.264859, "excess_performance": -0.272259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.279067, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008282, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.1056, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.421231, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209387, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.264859, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.249928, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 160584129, "relative_activity": 0.664382, "balance": 0.249928, "dry_up": 0.708938, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105947, "annualized_volatility": 0.747431, "from_high_reference": -0.577591, "from_low_reference": 0.267986 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.779, "fair_value_reference": 7.882376, "structural_low": 5.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.03267, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": -0.024014, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.549296, "worst_return": -0.216667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01049, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072019, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.550209, "worst_return": -0.289845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013472, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037753, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.548117, "worst_return": -0.272285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.816333, 9.591032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.99, "volume": 187722022, "typical_volume": 291355973.3, "trend": 9.8, "fair_value": 7.893799, "relative_strength": -30.916975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.469472, "energy": 93.903885, "activity_lines": [ 6.471333, 7.062, 8.418476, 9.34357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.46, "volume": 171323825, "typical_volume": 270936999.1, "trend": 9.783, "fair_value": 7.885942, "relative_strength": -24.055342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.368794, "energy": 88.119614, "activity_lines": [ 6.375333, 6.852545, 8.098571, 9.128086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.05, "volume": 160584129, "typical_volume": 241704407.75, "trend": 9.779, "fair_value": 7.882376, "relative_strength": -21.035801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.487427, "energy": 78.420156, "activity_lines": [ 6.535333, 6.809455, 7.876952, 8.951763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }