{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66decc03-ebe7-44b3-a7b2-49a12c1dea41", "symbol": "PAEJ", "name": "Amundi PEA Asie Pacifique (MSCI AC Asia Pacific Ex Japan) UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.964, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.064, "architecture_energy": 23.631, "architecture_maturity": 65.74, "architecture_confidence": 88.695, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.62, "rotation_up": 18.7, "upward_expansion": 52.59, "deceleration": 93.98, "rotation_down": 34.35, "downward_expansion": 18.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.360999, 26.735618, 26.6105, 25.982032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 26.639999, "trend_reference": 25.149867, "distance_from_trend": 0.05925, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.649419, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.355765, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.106482, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.143053, "excess_performance": 0.089742, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05925, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075754, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.355765, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065848, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.061065, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156972, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.143053, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.884781, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51245, "relative_activity": 0.624447, "balance": 0.884781, "dry_up": 1.024087, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043027, "annualized_volatility": 0.223419, "from_high_reference": -0.066737, "from_low_reference": 0.345455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.149867, "fair_value_reference": 19.649419, "structural_low": 21.903999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.01265, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.01785, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.136939, "worst_return": -0.040989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070757, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.082192, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217599, "worst_return": -0.020896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.064234, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.030286, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.232102, "worst_return": -0.031284, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056323, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001444, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038423, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.102301, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"close": 25.844999, "volume": 121898, "typical_volume": 90181.95, "trend": 24.7317, "fair_value": 19.454394, "relative_strength": 8.755445, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.430476, "energy": 36.209922, "activity_lines": [ 26.983333, 27.1236, 26.421857, 25.701176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.299999, "volume": 75176, "typical_volume": 85602.6, "trend": 24.8906, "fair_value": 19.516483, "relative_strength": 9.766094, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.982308, "energy": 23.740268, "activity_lines": [ 26.640333, 26.987436, 26.496381, 25.802357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.055, "volume": 87846, "typical_volume": 85588.0, "trend": 25.019433, "fair_value": 19.579669, "relative_strength": 6.638622, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.79146, "energy": 23.252767, "activity_lines": [ 26.355666, 26.804745, 26.532371, 25.877479 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.639999, "volume": 51245, "typical_volume": 82064.55, "trend": 25.149867, "fair_value": 19.649419, "relative_strength": 6.106482, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.063602, "energy": 23.630888, "activity_lines": [ 26.360999, 26.735618, 26.6105, 25.982032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }