{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66e73acf-832a-4ee0-bdc0-43d63f19139b", "symbol": "MLCHE", "name": "Cheops Technology France Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.938, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.857, "architecture_energy": 63.276, "architecture_maturity": 96.06, "architecture_confidence": 86.133, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.95, "rotation_up": 15.51, "upward_expansion": 17.87, "deceleration": 32.46, "rotation_down": 68.95, "downward_expansion": 86.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.6, 55.990909, 56.216667, 56.474194 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 55.5, "trend_reference": 56.966667, "distance_from_trend": -0.025746, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 61.562774, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.098481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.80261, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.034783, "excess_performance": -0.088094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025746, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023986, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.098481, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001071, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118026, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032698, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034783, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.45122, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7, "relative_activity": 0.505415, "balance": 0.45122, "dry_up": 1.949458, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017325, "annualized_volatility": 0.088041, "from_high_reference": -0.119048, "from_low_reference": 0.04717 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.966667, "fair_value_reference": 61.562774, "structural_low": 53.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.011899, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.090513, "worst_return": -0.092308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00813, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.010006, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.241615, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.050597, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.014335, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.080645, "worst_return": -0.041667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007463, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07563, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.039062, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04878, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03876, 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56.472727, 56.783333, 57.354839 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 57.0, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 25.2, "trend": 58.133333, "fair_value": 61.814764, "relative_strength": -8.26274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.518018, "energy": 27.193608, "activity_lines": [ 56.7, 56.554545, 56.769048, 57.277419 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 55.5, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 23.8, "trend": 57.966667, "fair_value": 61.769476, "relative_strength": -11.059375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.078991, "energy": 32.197742, "activity_lines": [ 56.4, 56.354545, 56.621429, 57.107527 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 57.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 21.0, "trend": 57.833333, "fair_value": 61.733804, "relative_strength": -7.958805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.61735, "energy": 20.21313, "activity_lines": [ 56.6, 56.454545, 56.628571, 57.045161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 57.0, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 14.15, "trend": 57.7, "fair_value": 61.691865, "relative_strength": -8.970121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.67606, "energy": 17.55109, "activity_lines": [ 56.7, 56.554545, 56.638095, 56.991398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 57.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.2, "trend": 57.566667, "fair_value": 61.649927, "relative_strength": -6.860466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.864573, "energy": 12.234188, "activity_lines": [ 56.8, 56.654545, 56.652381, 56.946237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.5, "volume": 68, "typical_volume": 12.9, "trend": 57.4, "fair_value": 61.610906, "relative_strength": -9.006934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.846786, "energy": 25.966013, "activity_lines": [ 56.4, 56.481818, 56.528571, 56.812903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.5, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 13.15, "trend": 57.216667, "fair_value": 61.618884, "relative_strength": -9.063573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.989971, "energy": 34.384837, "activity_lines": [ 56.1, 56.318182, 56.414286, 56.690323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.5, "volume": 19, "typical_volume": 13.6, "trend": 57.133333, "fair_value": 61.592396, "relative_strength": -10.098225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.500773, "energy": 49.677357, "activity_lines": [ 55.8, 56.154545, 56.309524, 56.57957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.5, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 13.85, "trend": 56.966667, "fair_value": 61.562774, "relative_strength": -11.80261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.856608, "energy": 63.275594, "activity_lines": [ 55.6, 55.990909, 56.216667, 56.474194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }