{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66ecbcc4-ee60-42db-964a-d02e842e9318", "symbol": "600876", "name": "Triumph New Energy Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.475, "architecture_energy": 68.013, "architecture_maturity": 49.674, "architecture_confidence": 90.672, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 15.52, "upward_expansion": 14.11, "deceleration": 43.07, "rotation_down": 67.11, "downward_expansion": 87.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.706, 7.059273, 7.852238, 8.465548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.93, "trend_reference": 9.19, "distance_from_trend": -0.245919, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.742308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.354887, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.768673, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.323902, "excess_performance": -0.280699, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.245919, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093331, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.354887, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174849, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.287687, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105592, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.323902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.523389, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17178292, "relative_activity": 0.590603, "balance": 0.523389, "dry_up": 0.706744, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136752, "annualized_volatility": 0.623706, "from_high_reference": -0.421053, "from_low_reference": 0.145455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.19, "fair_value_reference": 10.742308, "structural_low": 6.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.03205, "positive_rate": 0.321429, "directional_follow_through": 0.678571, "median_excess_return": -0.015502, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.331429, "worst_return": -0.167617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.115538, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.084773, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.427429, "worst_return": -0.276776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.167965, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.148995, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.199429, "worst_return": -0.358123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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8.756, 9.19671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.45, "volume": 22763689, "typical_volume": 30922159.85, "trend": 9.514333, "fair_value": 10.922628, "relative_strength": -32.820487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.617645, "energy": 89.559959, "activity_lines": [ 7.072667, 7.741455, 8.482286, 8.991978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.29, "volume": 20250680, "typical_volume": 30760624.35, "trend": 9.397667, "fair_value": 10.860449, "relative_strength": -34.592905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.035073, "energy": 89.33047, "activity_lines": [ 6.648, 7.395091, 8.215286, 8.783957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.82, "volume": 22032808, "typical_volume": 30256129.45, "trend": 9.287667, "fair_value": 10.801538, "relative_strength": -28.664262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.828651, "energy": 83.096724, "activity_lines": [ 6.642667, 7.197818, 8.01881, 8.617656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.93, "volume": 17178292, "typical_volume": 29086031.35, "trend": 9.19, "fair_value": 10.742308, "relative_strength": -28.768673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.475367, "energy": 68.012597, "activity_lines": [ 6.706, 7.059273, 7.852238, 8.465548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }