{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "66eebc60-93ae-4f29-9aea-8063609d61e5",
    "symbol": "MPC-C",
    "name": "Madison Pacific Properties Inc.",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 55.241,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -5.176,
    "architecture_energy": 24.731,
    "architecture_maturity": 54.443,
    "architecture_confidence": 58.624,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 55.96,
        "rotation_up": 12.11,
        "upward_expansion": 21.87,
        "deceleration": 78.45,
        "rotation_down": 62.98,
        "downward_expansion": 37.2
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        4.75,
        4.845455,
        4.823333,
        4.785634
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 4.75,
    "trend_reference": 4.774267,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.005083,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 4.540057,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046242,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -12.235646,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.04943,
    "excess_performance": -0.169851,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.005083,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005225,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.046242,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.031663,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.122356,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.01435,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04943,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.092593,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 0.092593,
      "dry_up": 0.526316,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.02834,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.232082,
      "from_high_reference": -0.068627,
      "from_low_reference": 0.08671
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 4.774267,
      "fair_value_reference": 4.540057,
      "structural_low": 4.44,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": -0.008321,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.043894,
        "regime_survival": 0.416667,
        "best_return": 0.166966,
        "worst_return": -0.1184,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.033334,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.064281,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.092437,
        "worst_return": -0.1024,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.069881,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": 0.020661,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.201658,
        "worst_return": -0.086853,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.044643,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.2166,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.092089,
        "worst_return": -0.15202,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.000809,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.152542,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0875,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.188889,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.109091,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.088084,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.038,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.01,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.029418,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.027719,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.032258,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-06-05",
        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-07-10",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 4.990027,
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        "typical_volume": 1470.0,
        "trend": 5.213503,
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        "relative_strength": -12.43646,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -43.109184,
        "energy": 37.048761,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.65,
          4.627273,
          4.697803,
          4.745677
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 4.65,
        "volume": 18000,
        "typical_volume": 7860.0,
        "trend": 4.795788,
        "fair_value": 4.538816,
        "relative_strength": -12.329476,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -41.550512,
        "energy": 32.44645,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.65,
          4.634727,
          4.687465,
          4.735631
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 4.6,
        "volume": 7100,
        "typical_volume": 7730.0,
        "trend": 4.784204,
        "fair_value": 4.533898,
        "relative_strength": -13.67061,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.196407,
        "energy": 39.094296,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.633333,
          4.633818,
          4.673312,
          4.723
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 4.65,
        "volume": 3000,
        "typical_volume": 7880.0,
        "trend": 4.774286,
        "fair_value": 4.53318,
        "relative_strength": -11.955235,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -51.367041,
        "energy": 35.587079,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.636667,
          4.640182,
          4.665103,
          4.714341
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 4.65,
        "volume": 9500,
        "typical_volume": 8355.0,
        "trend": 4.764369,
        "fair_value": 4.532461,
        "relative_strength": -13.407483,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -47.184227,
        "energy": 28.485461,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.64,
          4.642727,
          4.657841,
          4.706323
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 4.5,
        "volume": 30400,
        "typical_volume": 9875.0,
        "trend": 4.749451,
        "fair_value": 4.531944,
        "relative_strength": -16.519626,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -76.885081,
        "energy": 50.854499,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.593333,
          4.616364,
          4.637238,
          4.689267
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 5.1,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 9720.0,
        "trend": 4.7608,
        "fair_value": 4.535273,
        "relative_strength": -4.343426,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 19.995534,
        "energy": 23.251625,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.756667,
          4.701818,
          4.675438,
          4.711883
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 5.1,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 9720.0,
        "trend": 4.765883,
        "fair_value": 4.538602,
        "relative_strength": -5.174064,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 48.955898,
        "energy": 67.104654,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.89,
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          4.733767
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 5.1,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 9720.0,
        "trend": 4.777232,
        "fair_value": 4.54027,
        "relative_strength": -4.820232,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 47.958825,
        "energy": 80.271944,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.99,
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          4.750367,
          4.755323
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 5.1,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 9545.0,
        "trend": 4.782315,
        "fair_value": 4.541937,
        "relative_strength": -4.402041,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 47.400607,
        "energy": 81.333685,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.06,
          4.909091,
          4.787095,
          4.776146
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 5.1,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 9020.0,
        "trend": 4.790696,
        "fair_value": 4.544435,
        "relative_strength": -4.693773,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.638702,
        "energy": 87.512063,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.1,
          4.961818,
          4.823333,
          4.796642
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 4.75,
        "volume": 2000,
        "typical_volume": 9060.0,
        "trend": 4.78741,
        "fair_value": 4.543803,
        "relative_strength": -10.856432,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.825561,
        "energy": 49.969931,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.983333,
          4.942727,
          4.825048,
          4.794017
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 4.75,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 8670.0,
        "trend": 4.784124,
        "fair_value": 4.543171,
        "relative_strength": -10.48738,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.522505,
        "energy": 25.076183,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.89,
          4.921818,
          4.826476,
          4.791603
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 4.75,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 8495.0,
        "trend": 4.780838,
        "fair_value": 4.54254,
        "relative_strength": -10.495746,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 20.025115,
        "energy": 24.635721,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.82,
          4.898182,
          4.826714,
          4.789402
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 4.75,
        "volume": 10000,
        "typical_volume": 8895.0,
        "trend": 4.777552,
        "fair_value": 4.541188,
        "relative_strength": -9.745619,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -5.674467,
        "energy": 26.583418,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.773333,
          4.872727,
          4.825476,
          4.787412
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4.75,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 4750.0,
        "trend": 4.774267,
        "fair_value": 4.540057,
        "relative_strength": -12.235646,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -5.175989,
        "energy": 24.731078,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.75,
          4.845455,
          4.823333,
          4.785634
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}