{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66efe079-1ecb-4082-bce3-becd1ba97ce7", "symbol": "RCOM", "name": "Reliance Communications Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.992, "architecture_energy": 79.22, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.727, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.44, "rotation_up": 9.51, "upward_expansion": 18.84, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 76.88, "downward_expansion": 94.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.835333, 0.860182, 0.893095, 0.906817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.84, "trend_reference": 0.933667, "distance_from_trend": -0.100321, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.586282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.47046, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.290536, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.214953, "excess_performance": -0.171244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100321, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09616, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.47046, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070745, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232905, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.214953, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.248022, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10385665, "relative_activity": 0.94045, "balance": 0.248022, "dry_up": 0.952092, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050366, "annualized_volatility": 0.592267, "from_high_reference": -0.557895, "from_low_reference": 0.12 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.933667, "fair_value_reference": 1.586282, "structural_low": 0.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.032258, "positive_rate": 0.351351, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.046617, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.322034, "worst_return": -0.173913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.10458, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.136971, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.283871, "worst_return": -0.317073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.136271, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.144806, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.431818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.151786, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.191837, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053191, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.145455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101124, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.86, "volume": 11535570, "typical_volume": 12081744.55, "trend": 0.960667, "fair_value": 1.595705, "relative_strength": -23.086576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.428049, "energy": 72.37541, "activity_lines": [ 0.881333, 0.900364, 0.919095, 0.930882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.82, "volume": 11098437, "typical_volume": 11739102.25, "trend": 0.951, "fair_value": 1.592628, "relative_strength": -24.31149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.550728, "energy": 83.33671, "activity_lines": [ 0.857333, 0.884, 0.909524, 0.921806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.82, "volume": 9037273, "typical_volume": 11612758.1, "trend": 0.941333, "fair_value": 1.589551, "relative_strength": -25.592943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.553512, "energy": 84.839447, "activity_lines": [ 0.84, 0.869455, 0.899905, 0.913355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.84, "volume": 10385665, "typical_volume": 11043295.3, "trend": 0.933667, "fair_value": 1.586282, "relative_strength": -23.290536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.991514, "energy": 79.219521, "activity_lines": [ 0.835333, 0.860182, 0.893095, 0.906817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }