{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "66f2378e-6582-41b5-9ba3-a3414af7190a",
    "symbol": "SLV",
    "name": "iShares Silver Trust",
    "exchange": "MEX",
    "country": "MX",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^MXX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -64.652,
    "architecture_energy": 56.365,
    "architecture_maturity": 31.327,
    "architecture_confidence": 91.3,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 9.39,
        "rotation_up": 21.21,
        "upward_expansion": 9.1,
        "deceleration": 51.04,
        "rotation_down": 62.49,
        "downward_expansion": 84.77
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        936.968005,
        953.556735,
        1030.955769,
        1086.724027
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 986.0,
    "trend_reference": 1168.092672,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.155889,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 677.954745,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.454374,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -6.848355,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.186254,
    "excess_performance": -0.131587,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.155889,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.013387,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.454374,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.560139,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.068484,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.290723,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.186254,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.331755,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 46121,
      "relative_activity": 2.004407,
      "balance": 0.331755,
      "dry_up": 0.773257,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.091029,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.506206,
      "from_high_reference": -0.474498,
      "from_low_reference": 0.546667
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1168.092672,
      "fair_value_reference": 677.954745,
      "structural_low": 870.169983,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 22,
        "median_return": 0.019178,
        "positive_rate": 0.545455,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.454545,
        "median_excess_return": 0.021651,
        "regime_survival": 0.772727,
        "best_return": 0.101065,
        "worst_return": -0.129151,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.00561,
        "positive_rate": 0.375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.021244,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.137652,
        "worst_return": -0.107158,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.025824,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.051639,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.374696,
        "worst_return": -0.230736,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.089432,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.046764,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.257719,
        "worst_return": -0.250601,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-01-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.082051,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2024-03-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.033149,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.018182,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-04-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.116456,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.099287,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.041918,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.047368,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-04-25",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2026-02-20",
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        "return": 1.074475,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-06-05",
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        "return": -0.261597,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-06-12",
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        "return": 0.009737,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 25842.05,
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        "fair_value": 670.435514,
        "relative_strength": -11.432248,
        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 908.0,
        "volume": 5641,
        "typical_volume": 23246.9,
        "trend": 1178.476339,
        "fair_value": 673.897053,
        "relative_strength": -13.837798,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -70.714424,
        "energy": 76.581875,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 986.0,
        "volume": 46121,
        "typical_volume": 23009.8,
        "trend": 1168.092672,
        "fair_value": 677.954745,
        "relative_strength": -6.848355,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.65244,
        "energy": 56.364629,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}