{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66f32a81-17bd-46f6-825f-965478f86962", "symbol": "O5G", "name": "CPI Property Group", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.986, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.709, "architecture_energy": 25.507, "architecture_maturity": 20.033, "architecture_confidence": 72.999, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.7, "rotation_up": 11.84, "upward_expansion": 7.39, "deceleration": 56.1, "rotation_down": 50.26, "downward_expansion": 64.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.734, 0.736545, 0.736071, 0.736387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.73, "trend_reference": 0.738333, "distance_from_trend": -0.011287, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.82141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111285, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.644827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013514, "excess_performance": -0.078153, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019478, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111285, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002794, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116448, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04554, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013514, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.011086, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20, "relative_activity": 0.024453, "balance": 0.011086, "dry_up": 0.169947, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013699, "annualized_volatility": 0.10099, "from_high_reference": -0.109756, "from_low_reference": 0.081481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.738333, "fair_value_reference": 0.82141, "structural_low": 0.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.022347, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129252, "worst_return": -0.075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.006711, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.011046, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.197279, "worst_return": -0.06875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013793, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.064571, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.231293, "worst_return": -0.08589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.021978, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.176377, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.241379, "worst_return": -0.01875, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023529, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.018182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018519, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.042945, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06875, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040268, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013699, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013514, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.885, "volume": 88, "typical_volume": 735.9, "trend": 0.9055, "fair_value": 0.803558, "relative_strength": -7.873097, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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0.810577, "relative_strength": -3.09587, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.454622, "energy": 15.771017, "activity_lines": [ 0.894, 0.892091, 0.894905, 0.89771 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 0.895, "volume": 461, "typical_volume": 673.25, "trend": 0.899833, "fair_value": 0.811763, "relative_strength": -1.613328, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.788613, "energy": 13.002868, "activity_lines": [ 0.894, 0.892909, 0.894595, 0.897355 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 0.895, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 673.25, "trend": 0.899167, "fair_value": 0.812853, "relative_strength": -0.867012, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.692909, "energy": 13.830561, "activity_lines": [ 0.894667, 0.893636, 0.894333, 0.897043 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", 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0.739333, 0.735909, 0.736, 0.739441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.74, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2448.35, "trend": 0.746833, "fair_value": 0.82641, "relative_strength": -10.011284, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.873911, "energy": 13.339763, "activity_lines": [ 0.74, 0.736818, 0.736357, 0.738903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.74, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 2223.0, "trend": 0.745333, "fair_value": 0.825321, "relative_strength": -7.180014, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.658848, "energy": 11.620193, "activity_lines": [ 0.74, 0.737818, 0.73669, 0.738462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.74, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 2141.0, "trend": 0.743833, "fair_value": 0.824359, "relative_strength": -6.049189, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.38559, "energy": 10.942502, "activity_lines": [ 0.74, 0.738636, 0.737024, 0.738118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.74, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1306.45, "trend": 0.742333, "fair_value": 0.823397, "relative_strength": -6.781766, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.79337, "energy": 10.342029, "activity_lines": [ 0.74, 0.739455, 0.737357, 0.737871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.73, "volume": 36, "typical_volume": 1145.85, "trend": 0.740667, "fair_value": 0.822404, "relative_strength": -9.597293, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.729545, "energy": 19.668969, "activity_lines": [ 0.736667, 0.738, 0.736714, 0.737075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.73, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 817.9, "trend": 0.738333, "fair_value": 0.82141, "relative_strength": -11.644827, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.70925, "energy": 25.506635, "activity_lines": [ 0.734, 0.736545, 0.736071, 0.736387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }