{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66f3b252-3bae-4b48-9e7b-b7015cda0c9d", "symbol": "C1RR34", "name": "Carrier Global Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.51, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.563, "architecture_energy": 22.437, "architecture_maturity": 58.7, "architecture_confidence": 86.634, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.89, "rotation_up": 24.12, "upward_expansion": 58.68, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 36.7, "downward_expansion": 24.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.163963, 88.934727, 86.843828, 84.446011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 83.660004, "trend_reference": 81.918797, "distance_from_trend": 0.021255, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 84.229898, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006766, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.56063, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.01803, "excess_performance": 0.075079, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021255, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074199, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006766, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028867, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005606, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.166143, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01803, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 102.955157, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21833, "relative_activity": 18.791582, "balance": 102.955157, "dry_up": 4.734475, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05834, "annualized_volatility": 0.42216, "from_high_reference": -0.206814, "from_low_reference": 0.223024 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.918797, "fair_value_reference": 84.229898, "structural_low": 70.501221, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004261, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.061125, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.216237, "worst_return": -0.068928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.170523, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.025455, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285484, "worst_return": -0.141918, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.081953, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.279245, "worst_return": -0.084355, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131174, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.102394, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129062, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006718, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", 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67.821995, "energy": 76.850005, "activity_lines": [ 92.013182, 89.783082, 84.747149, 82.641595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 98.788261, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 64.25, "trend": 80.75119, "fair_value": 83.876402, "relative_strength": 12.535767, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.316452, "energy": 74.708313, "activity_lines": [ 94.098979, 91.836687, 86.41679, 83.861618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 86.029999, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 66.7, "trend": 81.164391, "fair_value": 84.030263, "relative_strength": -1.069707, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.606167, "energy": 47.847849, "activity_lines": [ 91.442138, 91.291548, 86.773981, 84.202186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 82.800003, "volume": 105, "typical_volume": 70.45, "trend": 81.516324, "fair_value": 84.119518, "relative_strength": -5.698524, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.5137, "energy": 21.855788, "activity_lines": [ 88.206604, 90.056774, 86.786931, 84.307709 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.660004, "volume": 21833, "typical_volume": 1161.85, "trend": 81.918797, "fair_value": 84.229898, "relative_strength": -0.56063, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.562556, "energy": 22.436728, "activity_lines": [ 86.163963, 88.934727, 86.843828, 84.446011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }