{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66f8b783-6010-4e44-8c2f-9fc710711ff5", "symbol": "TIT", "name": "Telecom Italia S.p.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.19, "architecture_energy": 37.511, "architecture_maturity": 66.551, "architecture_confidence": 93.53, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.53, "rotation_up": 24.07, "upward_expansion": 63.21, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 31.2, "downward_expansion": 26.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.554733, 7.708091, 7.523595, 7.219942 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.625, "trend_reference": 6.811733, "distance_from_trend": 0.119392, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.845917, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.982622, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.979582, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.285835, "excess_performance": 0.111588, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119392, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154557, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.982622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056174, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059796, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123285, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.285835, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 599.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 599.0, "dry_up": 0.006667, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029407, "annualized_volatility": 0.255253, "from_high_reference": -0.066822, "from_low_reference": 0.888311 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.811733, "fair_value_reference": 3.845917, "structural_low": 5.638, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.005597, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.018771, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.116593, "worst_return": -0.12585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0211, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.015174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.359581, "worst_return": -0.314637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026025, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006051, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.454797, "worst_return": -0.469373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.23165, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.212157, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.122634, "worst_return": -0.340665, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020901, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.10737, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032116, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059345, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045281, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07783, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16882, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.907076, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00987, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.125874, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08584, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.101108, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.762, "volume": 3055, "typical_volume": 720.85, "trend": 2.762233, "fair_value": 3.217142, "relative_strength": 12.786918, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.736547, "energy": 14.397951, "activity_lines": [ 2.691533, 2.652455, 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6.2878, "fair_value": 3.649744, "relative_strength": 19.710899, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.497097, "energy": 96.6056, "activity_lines": [ 7.8324, 7.548509, 7.084305, 6.757226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 8.137, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 74.9, "trend": 6.390167, "fair_value": 3.685545, "relative_strength": 17.482068, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.024336, "energy": 95.416625, "activity_lines": [ 7.9786, 7.699709, 7.216, 6.876529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.991, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 74.9, "trend": 6.492267, "fair_value": 3.720269, "relative_strength": 16.124704, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.628083, "energy": 88.873433, "activity_lines": [ 8.020333, 7.796564, 7.325576, 6.979809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.865, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 75.0, "trend": 6.587233, "fair_value": 3.753712, "relative_strength": 15.758466, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.211784, "energy": 68.27761, "activity_lines": [ 7.978667, 7.846964, 7.416186, 7.068372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.357, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 75.0, "trend": 6.660867, "fair_value": 3.783859, "relative_strength": 6.272077, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.112115, "energy": 60.52337, "activity_lines": [ 7.7692, 7.789091, 7.450752, 7.118034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.351, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 75.0, "trend": 6.735567, "fair_value": 3.814487, "relative_strength": 5.692793, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.189233, "energy": 42.483795, "activity_lines": [ 7.593133, 7.725236, 7.47741, 7.162559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.625, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 75.0, "trend": 6.811733, "fair_value": 3.845917, "relative_strength": 5.979582, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.190234, "energy": 37.51148, "activity_lines": [ 7.554733, 7.708091, 7.523595, 7.219942 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }