{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66f91293-ca7a-4b09-9968-4081b4de7ef7", "symbol": "CBUSS", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Liquid Corp UCITS ETF hCHF acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.452, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.139, "architecture_energy": 80.794, "architecture_maturity": 45.564, "architecture_confidence": 79.988, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.75, "rotation_up": 8.69, "upward_expansion": 19.37, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 78.18, "downward_expansion": 95.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.813933, 14.9052, 14.988524, 15.04229 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.829, "trend_reference": 15.1246, "distance_from_trend": -0.019544, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.040119, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014037, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.346517, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031639, "excess_performance": -0.114522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019544, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008227, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014037, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022866, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123465, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082793, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031639, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.377819, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52887, "relative_activity": 0.826501, "balance": 1.377819, "dry_up": 0.732735, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008826, "annualized_volatility": 0.050962, "from_high_reference": -0.046796, "from_low_reference": 0.007644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.1246, "fair_value_reference": 15.040119, "structural_low": 14.7165, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.003627, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.003291, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.051648, "worst_return": -0.056297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011878, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011327, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.07885, "worst_return": -0.093833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005358, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014116, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.022776, "worst_return": -0.141247, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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15.132535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.954, "volume": 35679, "typical_volume": 78428.15, "trend": 15.180767, "fair_value": 15.040827, "relative_strength": -11.463079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.487868, "energy": 54.935103, "activity_lines": [ 15.008067, 15.042964, 15.07254, 15.117067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.756, "volume": 55148, "typical_volume": 77671.75, "trend": 15.161967, "fair_value": 15.039833, "relative_strength": -12.200078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.701104, "energy": 78.900299, "activity_lines": [ 14.9132, 14.989218, 15.040486, 15.089662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.74, "volume": 43834, "typical_volume": 72028.05, "trend": 15.1413, "fair_value": 15.039817, "relative_strength": -12.046012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.667446, "energy": 85.864184, "activity_lines": [ 14.834867, 14.936664, 15.00946, 15.062439 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.829, "volume": 52887, "typical_volume": 63989.0, "trend": 15.1246, "fair_value": 15.040119, "relative_strength": -12.346517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.139066, "energy": 80.794296, "activity_lines": [ 14.813933, 14.9052, 14.988524, 15.04229 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }