{ "ticker": { "uuid": "66fcad9c-6ac8-4ccf-b9fd-9f38575482a5", "symbol": "XDEE", "name": "Xtrackers S&P 500 Equal Weight UCITS ETF 2C EUR Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.453, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.23, "architecture_energy": 68.781, "architecture_maturity": 50.028, "architecture_confidence": 74.972, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 63.88, "upward_expansion": 84.83, "deceleration": 65.18, "rotation_down": 23.11, "downward_expansion": 11.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.258533, 12.185018, 11.979905, 11.799931 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.464, "trend_reference": 11.612533, "distance_from_trend": 0.073323, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.179135, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224466, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.146606, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.087799, "excess_performance": -0.083093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073323, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036445, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224466, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055742, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051466, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012878, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087799, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.575607, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137498, "relative_activity": 0.457705, "balance": 2.575607, "dry_up": 0.58827, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017453, "annualized_volatility": 0.10069, "from_high_reference": -0.005426, "from_low_reference": 0.201234 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.612533, "fair_value_reference": 10.179135, "structural_low": 10.696, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.008854, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.00844, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.037985, "worst_return": -0.051525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.032845, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.023334, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.077455, "worst_return": -0.129757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070348, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042657, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.074734, "worst_return": 0.01558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 22680, "typical_volume": 398162.15, "trend": 11.4154, "fair_value": 10.072577, "relative_strength": -6.602428, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.727588, "energy": 91.564833, "activity_lines": [ 12.054533, 11.921964, 11.678781, 11.565824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.16, "volume": 267310, "typical_volume": 380713.05, "trend": 11.454, "fair_value": 10.093814, "relative_strength": -6.263169, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.98158, "energy": 87.313441, "activity_lines": [ 12.1072, 11.987127, 11.7398, 11.613862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.168, "volume": 236022, "typical_volume": 337128.55, "trend": 11.493867, "fair_value": 10.114244, "relative_strength": -4.675309, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.992201, "energy": 85.410759, "activity_lines": [ 12.142133, 12.041418, 11.798705, 11.659927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.154, "volume": 217055, "typical_volume": 328962.65, "trend": 11.5324, "fair_value": 10.134551, "relative_strength": -4.429078, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.998647, "energy": 75.766292, "activity_lines": [ 12.1596, 12.082255, 11.85361, 11.702516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.15, "volume": 116309, "typical_volume": 313804.55, "trend": 11.571667, "fair_value": 10.1555, "relative_strength": -4.944896, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.292084, "energy": 60.695711, "activity_lines": [ 12.158933, 12.109382, 11.904533, 11.742361 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.464, "volume": 137498, "typical_volume": 300407.75, "trend": 11.612533, "fair_value": 10.179135, "relative_strength": -5.146606, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.230154, "energy": 68.781233, "activity_lines": [ 12.258533, 12.185018, 11.979905, 11.799931 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }