{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6700516d-9add-4fd1-8a87-8422f5141d5a", "symbol": "MVA", "name": "VanEck Australian Property ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 68.689, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.249, "architecture_energy": 49.926, "architecture_maturity": 5.156, "architecture_confidence": 54.447, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.51, "rotation_up": 61.88, "upward_expansion": 53.57, "deceleration": 30.86, "rotation_down": 18.71, "downward_expansion": 16.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.614666, 23.402271, 22.992303, 22.937491 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.09, "trend_reference": 23.175733, "distance_from_trend": 0.039449, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.003459, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.094828, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.806588, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008234, "excess_performance": -0.07194, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039449, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032182, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.094828, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087019, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058066, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055553, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008234, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.000102, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 246477, "relative_activity": 0.834621, "balance": 1.000102, "dry_up": 0.829075, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028867, "annualized_volatility": 0.167869, "from_high_reference": -0.121815, "from_low_reference": 0.124207 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.175733, "fair_value_reference": 22.003459, "structural_low": 21.428432, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.05518, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.082972, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.006597, "worst_return": -0.116957, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.002378, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061264, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.077852, "worst_return": -0.082609, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.040035, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.113292, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.013248, "worst_return": -0.093318, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06453, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02287, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051271, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.113742, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000741, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029845, "active": false }, { 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"fair_value": 21.902132, "relative_strength": -4.894512, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.920772, "energy": 19.210182, "activity_lines": [ 23.129795, 22.96752, 22.676046, 22.869113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.059999, "volume": 213205, "typical_volume": 320622.0, "trend": 23.301066, "fair_value": 21.929796, "relative_strength": -5.047701, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.135529, "energy": 10.827307, "activity_lines": [ 23.095675, 23.030762, 22.725798, 22.84793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.83, "volume": 250954, "typical_volume": 310902.65, "trend": 23.230733, "fair_value": 21.965766, "relative_strength": -4.019772, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.640599, "energy": 25.472513, "activity_lines": [ 23.320333, 23.211548, 22.850503, 22.882055 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.09, "volume": 246477, "typical_volume": 295316.2, "trend": 23.175733, "fair_value": 22.003459, "relative_strength": -5.806588, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.249131, "energy": 49.926297, "activity_lines": [ 23.614666, 23.402271, 22.992303, 22.937491 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }