{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67038bf4-92f2-4e4a-8fb0-35c46ae398d1", "symbol": "9516", "name": "Natural Gas Distribution Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.14, "architecture_energy": 74.498, "architecture_maturity": 18.152, "architecture_confidence": 85.543, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.01, "rotation_up": 10.23, "upward_expansion": 16.38, "deceleration": 37.73, "rotation_down": 78.36, "downward_expansion": 94.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.018001, 23.848989, 25.353462, 25.650883 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 22.620001, "trend_reference": 25.907678, "distance_from_trend": -0.1269, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.842176, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.459397, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.115589, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091566, "excess_performance": -0.059737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1269, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083267, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.459397, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089339, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055587, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091566, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.09318, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28471, "relative_activity": 2.107308, "balance": 0.09318, "dry_up": 1.074545, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 8 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083037, "annualized_volatility": 0.371871, "from_high_reference": -0.461429, "from_low_reference": 0.072038 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.907678, "fair_value_reference": 41.842176, "structural_low": 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27.031678, "fair_value": 42.95952, "relative_strength": -17.788912, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.809846, "energy": 41.818558, "activity_lines": [ 25.714958, 26.449188, 26.89247, 26.732865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.0, "volume": 17114, "typical_volume": 10816.0, "trend": 26.805011, "fair_value": 42.762904, "relative_strength": -20.119343, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.079366, "energy": 61.789872, "activity_lines": [ 24.985358, 25.912473, 26.652326, 26.537272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.4, "volume": 18029, "typical_volume": 11716.3, "trend": 26.575011, "fair_value": 42.537408, "relative_strength": -20.679558, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.745867, "energy": 71.049199, "activity_lines": [ 24.332339, 25.336415, 26.357324, 26.317594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.110001, "volume": 6866, "typical_volume": 11959.7, "trend": 26.349344, "fair_value": 42.298789, "relative_strength": -21.520706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.760617, "energy": 79.052109, "activity_lines": [ 23.783334, 24.788289, 26.039846, 26.094045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.01, "volume": 4705, "typical_volume": 12089.15, "trend": 26.149678, "fair_value": 42.059529, "relative_strength": -19.590144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.463657, "energy": 82.019006, "activity_lines": [ 23.379334, 24.314658, 25.71413, 25.878604 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.620001, "volume": 28471, "typical_volume": 13510.6, "trend": 25.907678, "fair_value": 41.842176, "relative_strength": -22.115589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.139997, "energy": 74.497753, "activity_lines": [ 23.018001, 23.848989, 25.353462, 25.650883 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }