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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.079, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.673, "architecture_energy": 60.529, "architecture_maturity": 74.643, "architecture_confidence": 46.922, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.6, "rotation_up": 48.86, "upward_expansion": 78.5, "deceleration": 71.5, "rotation_down": 29.06, "downward_expansion": 16.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.645333, 99.506932, 95.111472, 91.197418 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 97.860001, "trend_reference": 87.330341, "distance_from_trend": 0.120573, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 88.634144, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.104089, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.434362, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.25083, "excess_performance": 0.076583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.120573, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044555, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.104089, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110645, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032412, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.25083, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.25, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.25, "dry_up": 0.271186, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037233, "annualized_volatility": 0.17217, "from_high_reference": -0.083021, "from_low_reference": 0.320514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.330341, "fair_value_reference": 88.634144, "structural_low": 74.10752, "invalidation": "A decisive 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-0.921371, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.945967, "energy": 91.400385, "activity_lines": [ 101.760667, 97.691788, 92.039948, 88.790114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 102.379997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17.1, "trend": 86.791767, "fair_value": 88.537318, "relative_strength": -2.116489, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.580494, "energy": 88.538875, "activity_lines": [ 102.526666, 99.133459, 93.486739, 89.828935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 97.269997, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 14.75, "trend": 87.126747, "fair_value": 88.571791, "relative_strength": -6.631617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.453846, "energy": 66.604535, "activity_lines": [ 101.009999, 99.354853, 94.323748, 90.50495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 97.860001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14.75, "trend": 87.330341, "fair_value": 88.634144, "relative_strength": -8.434362, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.67266, "energy": 60.529351, "activity_lines": [ 99.645333, 99.506932, 95.111472, 91.197418 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }