{ "ticker": { "uuid": "670a544c-3fdd-486b-b3be-b00faf68bee0", "symbol": "900936", "name": "Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.378, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.557, "architecture_energy": 14.002, "architecture_maturity": 6.078, "architecture_confidence": 49.926, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.53, "rotation_up": 19.87, "upward_expansion": 20.27, "deceleration": 59.68, "rotation_down": 52.25, "downward_expansion": 36.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.1728, 1.183157, 1.185835, 1.184467 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.168, "trend_reference": 1.175636, "distance_from_trend": -0.006495, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.899436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298591, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.504288, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.01477, "excess_performance": 0.057974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006495, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054315, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.298591, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086831, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.075043, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006233, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01477, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.419113, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2126170, "relative_activity": 0.592789, "balance": 0.419113, "dry_up": 0.756984, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042331, "annualized_volatility": 0.221981, "from_high_reference": -0.082482, "from_low_reference": 0.268187 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.175636, "fair_value_reference": 0.899436, "structural_low": 1.050361, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.004797, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.007514, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.198795, "worst_return": -0.231674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.04142, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.003882, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.053551, "worst_return": -0.19276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023012, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017366, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.281356, "worst_return": -0.28536, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039054, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007454, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067962, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092119, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.080453, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", 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"direction": 46.697398, "energy": 25.66759, "activity_lines": [ 1.20198, 1.197155, 1.19186, 1.182228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.17, "volume": 2638140, "typical_volume": 3983989.45, "trend": 1.160069, "fair_value": 0.894459, "relative_strength": 13.34679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.339293, "energy": 11.622075, "activity_lines": [ 1.190333, 1.192592, 1.189788, 1.183243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.175, "volume": 3029528, "typical_volume": 3799121.5, "trend": 1.165936, "fair_value": 0.89616, "relative_strength": 12.04684, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.794676, "energy": 9.855533, "activity_lines": [ 1.182267, 1.189711, 1.18854, 1.184207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.173, "volume": 3066528, "typical_volume": 3701017.8, "trend": 1.171036, "fair_value": 0.897801, "relative_strength": 11.129948, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.521094, "energy": 9.403703, "activity_lines": [ 1.178867, 1.186999, 1.187359, 1.184662 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.168, "volume": 2126170, "typical_volume": 3586724.75, "trend": 1.175636, "fair_value": 0.899436, "relative_strength": 7.504288, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.557245, "energy": 14.002108, "activity_lines": [ 1.1728, 1.183157, 1.185835, 1.184467 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }