{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "67175493-6fe1-433d-a9c8-d6b362ba8fd1",
    "symbol": "SWUT",
    "name": "SW Umwelttechnik Stoiser & Wolschner AG",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 65.725,
    "architecture_energy": 79.322,
    "architecture_maturity": 13.752,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.082,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 23.83,
        "rotation_up": 71.23,
        "upward_expansion": 92.1,
        "deceleration": 45.26,
        "rotation_down": 12.87,
        "downward_expansion": 18.76
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        39.733333,
        39.025454,
        38.466127,
        37.218724
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 39.799999,
    "trend_reference": 35.475556,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.121899,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 36.871056,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.079437,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -5.302904,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.270753,
    "excess_performance": 0.096507,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.121899,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.075582,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079437,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.050202,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.053029,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00436,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.270753,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.984615,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 30,
      "relative_activity": 0.159151,
      "balance": 1.984615,
      "dry_up": 0.334218,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.034983,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.301507,
      "from_high_reference": -0.005,
      "from_low_reference": 0.328142
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 35.475556,
      "fair_value_reference": 36.871056,
      "structural_low": 31.706667,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 19,
        "median_return": 0.004367,
        "positive_rate": 0.526316,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.526316,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008221,
        "regime_survival": 0.736842,
        "best_return": 0.113861,
        "worst_return": -0.071429,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.004991,
        "positive_rate": 0.375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.375,
        "median_excess_return": -0.027022,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.138614,
        "worst_return": -0.090909,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.071658,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.094857,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.195726,
        "worst_return": -0.213333,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.045183,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.027336,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.288196,
        "worst_return": -0.241803,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.0625,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.075,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.016393,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.050279,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.005682,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.006061,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2026-07-03",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.005,
        "active": true
      }
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          32.277521
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 37.700001,
        "volume": 234,
        "typical_volume": 374.2,
        "trend": 32.14489,
        "fair_value": 36.610736,
        "relative_strength": -3.900456,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 94.568957,
        "energy": 98.08567,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.140446,
          34.444971,
          33.168636,
          32.643399
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 37.700001,
        "volume": 206,
        "typical_volume": 366.6,
        "trend": 32.338224,
        "fair_value": 36.629144,
        "relative_strength": -4.866882,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.439297,
        "energy": 95.252377,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.068446,
          35.218304,
          33.676827,
          33.001794
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 39.0,
        "volume": 167,
        "typical_volume": 354.1,
        "trend": 32.57489,
        "fair_value": 36.650747,
        "relative_strength": -0.852498,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 90.982599,
        "energy": 96.840834,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.043112,
          36.122547,
          34.280287,
          33.431586
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 39.0,
        "volume": 170,
        "typical_volume": 339.3,
        "trend": 32.811557,
        "fair_value": 36.66093,
        "relative_strength": -2.503411,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.842083,
        "energy": 93.480371,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.544445,
          36.901213,
          34.848096,
          33.846109
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 38.0,
        "volume": 70,
        "typical_volume": 332.15,
        "trend": 32.982668,
        "fair_value": 36.664702,
        "relative_strength": -7.108937,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.588865,
        "energy": 68.852624,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.406667,
          37.372485,
          35.277652,
          34.180847
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 40.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 318.55,
        "trend": 33.28489,
        "fair_value": 36.681296,
        "relative_strength": -0.847467,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.00743,
        "energy": 75.43923,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.98,
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          35.864953,
          34.633578
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 37.0,
        "volume": 55,
        "typical_volume": 292.1,
        "trend": 33.487112,
        "fair_value": 36.678658,
        "relative_strength": -10.416842,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.662994,
        "energy": 64.724835,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 39.799999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 278.2,
        "trend": 33.769779,
        "fair_value": 36.705389,
        "relative_strength": -7.144669,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.423904,
        "energy": 67.366022,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.8,
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          36.621397,
          35.280546
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 37.0,
        "volume": 40,
        "typical_volume": 280.2,
        "trend": 33.959112,
        "fair_value": 36.714171,
        "relative_strength": -11.565269,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.881128,
        "energy": 47.220891,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.213333,
          38.370303,
          36.811461,
          35.488947
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 37.0,
        "volume": 77,
        "typical_volume": 268.55,
        "trend": 34.129112,
        "fair_value": 36.724096,
        "relative_strength": -13.241428,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.526001,
        "energy": 32.216224,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.76,
          38.118182,
          36.974477,
          35.685133
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 37.0,
        "volume": 42,
        "typical_volume": 264.15,
        "trend": 34.292668,
        "fair_value": 36.738588,
        "relative_strength": -11.505478,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.083231,
        "energy": 28.206178,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.373333,
          37.896364,
          37.113207,
          35.870352
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 40.0,
        "volume": 220,
        "typical_volume": 216.95,
        "trend": 34.569112,
        "fair_value": 36.766601,
        "relative_strength": -1.969848,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.581641,
        "energy": 35.992233,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.186667,
          38.232727,
          37.513365,
          36.238567
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 40.0,
        "volume": 2,
        "typical_volume": 211.25,
        "trend": 34.852001,
        "fair_value": 36.806034,
        "relative_strength": -2.81699,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.703075,
        "energy": 54.578232,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.8,
          38.527273,
          37.874953,
          36.588947
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 40.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 189.3,
        "trend": 35.186445,
        "fair_value": 36.834047,
        "relative_strength": -2.308231,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.639012,
        "energy": 75.956608,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.4,
          38.803636,
          38.198889,
          36.921076
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 39.799999,
        "volume": 30,
        "typical_volume": 188.5,
        "trend": 35.475556,
        "fair_value": 36.871056,
        "relative_strength": -5.302904,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.725309,
        "energy": 79.321906,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.733333,
          39.025454,
          38.466127,
          37.218724
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}