{ "ticker": { "uuid": "671d150c-1ae9-42f6-8fc8-bf49fbbb5fa2", "symbol": "VTSI", "name": "VirTra Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.035, "architecture_energy": 49.772, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.66, "rotation_up": 26.01, "upward_expansion": 7.63, "deceleration": 50.01, "rotation_down": 54.36, "downward_expansion": 83.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.095667, 3.145455, 3.366881, 3.584462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.05, "trend_reference": 3.895333, "distance_from_trend": -0.217012, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.512692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.531684, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.375899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.352442, "excess_performance": -0.539895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.217012, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119068, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.531684, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143326, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.413759, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073612, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.352442, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.280982, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129184, "relative_activity": 0.445505, "balance": 0.280982, "dry_up": 0.617167, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11453, "annualized_volatility": 0.538779, "from_high_reference": -0.580468, "from_low_reference": 0.059028 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.895333, "fair_value_reference": 6.512692, "structural_low": 2.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.018477, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.00786, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.582599, "worst_return": -0.276392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.092788, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.059492, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 1.502203, "worst_return": -0.235152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.030405, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.062182, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.907489, "worst_return": -0.291729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.236364, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.01008, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.292829, "worst_return": -0.245113, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.299885, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138141, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.492228, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.336312, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06135, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.065455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.214559, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128247, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.843128, "energy": 71.255461, "activity_lines": [ 3.141333, 3.236545, 3.541619, 3.758022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.175, "volume": 207724, "typical_volume": 293773.8, "trend": 4.003, "fair_value": 6.558269, "relative_strength": -38.17502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.415017, "energy": 63.543972, "activity_lines": [ 3.137667, 3.216182, 3.485071, 3.702011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.09, "volume": 147662, "typical_volume": 292983.55, "trend": 3.959, "fair_value": 6.535449, "relative_strength": -38.89031, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.895085, "energy": 54.387808, "activity_lines": [ 3.117333, 3.181, 3.425024, 3.643108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.05, "volume": 129184, "typical_volume": 289972.05, "trend": 3.895333, "fair_value": 6.512692, "relative_strength": -41.375899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.035481, "energy": 49.772248, "activity_lines": [ 3.095667, 3.145455, 3.366881, 3.584462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }