{ "ticker": { "uuid": "671ebb2d-5121-41a5-a569-85d47a7aba7d", "symbol": "XESX", "name": "Xtrackers Euro Stoxx 50 UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.202, "architecture_energy": 68.627, "architecture_maturity": 32.78, "architecture_confidence": 81.971, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 62.74, "upward_expansion": 85.37, "deceleration": 54.25, "rotation_down": 23.0, "downward_expansion": 12.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.142665, 66.65109, 65.183999, 63.977713 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 68.809998, "trend_reference": 62.810725, "distance_from_trend": 0.095514, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.608739, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.307958, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.56982, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.111217, "excess_performance": -0.059674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095514, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039093, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.307958, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087366, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025698, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036478, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111217, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.0359, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54453, "relative_activity": 0.638705, "balance": 3.0359, "dry_up": 0.935687, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023987, "annualized_volatility": 0.171922, "from_high_reference": -0.004485, "from_low_reference": 0.267038 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.810725, "fair_value_reference": 52.608739, "structural_low": 55.542624, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.002979, "positive_rate": 0.564103, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.00853, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.106584, "worst_return": -0.087676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.004842, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.024603, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.131374, "worst_return": -0.060504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.071687, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.010178, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.116443, "worst_return": -0.164926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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63.025823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.129997, "volume": 56536, "typical_volume": 88390.05, "trend": 62.362264, "fair_value": 52.277199, "relative_strength": -3.026921, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.848387, "energy": 58.977767, "activity_lines": [ 66.092666, 65.768727, 64.236886, 63.28357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.889999, "volume": 90636, "typical_volume": 87976.25, "trend": 62.578511, "fair_value": 52.436448, "relative_strength": -2.54248, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.213335, "energy": 53.88839, "activity_lines": [ 66.345332, 66.068181, 64.637768, 63.575682 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.809998, "volume": 54453, "typical_volume": 85255.3, "trend": 62.810725, "fair_value": 52.608739, "relative_strength": -2.56982, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.202042, "energy": 68.627421, "activity_lines": [ 67.142665, 66.65109, 65.183999, 63.977713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }