{ "ticker": { "uuid": "67214c52-6639-432a-b9ad-76874bf5f7ac", "symbol": "MSF", "name": "Microsoft Corporation", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.642, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.111, "architecture_energy": 81.679, "architecture_maturity": 22.981, "architecture_confidence": 72.317, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.78, "rotation_up": 74.51, "upward_expansion": 85.18, "deceleration": 50.65, "rotation_down": 8.17, "downward_expansion": 16.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 386.213335, 364.48091, 357.482256, 352.821575 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 434.350006, "trend_reference": 351.056717, "distance_from_trend": 0.237264, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 375.339435, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.157219, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.865256, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.295425, "excess_performance": 0.230786, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.237264, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053458, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.157219, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.205704, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048653, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173949, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.295425, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.920471, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 278165, "relative_activity": 1.645001, "balance": 1.920471, "dry_up": 1.560978, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058379, "annualized_volatility": 0.39999, "from_high_reference": -0.086221, "from_low_reference": 0.406509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 351.056717, "fair_value_reference": 375.339435, "structural_low": 308.814219, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006197, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.001876, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.052592, "worst_return": -0.064816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.036308, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057376, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.195502, "worst_return": -0.16306, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00528, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.095743, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.169068, "worst_return": -0.124832, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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333.533333, 342.377434, 344.478108, 346.176231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 342.0, "volume": 224030, "typical_volume": 149517.45, "trend": 352.755515, "fair_value": 373.460606, "relative_strength": -13.529707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.566843, "energy": 40.812643, "activity_lines": [ 336.566667, 341.185962, 344.371733, 345.331588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 338.0, "volume": 136184, "typical_volume": 146843.6, "trend": 350.290709, "fair_value": 373.71351, "relative_strength": -14.996903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.853781, "energy": 24.008458, "activity_lines": [ 337.81, 339.458181, 343.841325, 344.379619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 396.95, "volume": 417449, "typical_volume": 160493.5, "trend": 350.158978, "fair_value": 374.375527, "relative_strength": -1.799691, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.966899, "energy": 26.052265, "activity_lines": [ 358.176666, 348.891818, 349.003288, 347.389896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 434.350006, "volume": 278165, "typical_volume": 169097.15, "trend": 351.056717, "fair_value": 375.339435, "relative_strength": 4.865256, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.110742, "energy": 81.67945, "activity_lines": [ 386.213335, 364.48091, 357.482256, 352.821575 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }