{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6724999c-f60b-4d7b-9c87-9a891fdfb007", "symbol": "HDIV", "name": "Hamilton Enhanced Canadian Covered Call ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.821, "architecture_energy": 54.107, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.728, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.05, "rotation_up": 51.53, "upward_expansion": 81.81, "deceleration": 68.19, "rotation_down": 28.21, "downward_expansion": 8.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.406785, 23.343097, 23.029086, 22.548372 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.690001, "trend_reference": 21.934072, "distance_from_trend": 0.080055, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.032062, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.477664, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.310613, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.155805, "excess_performance": 0.035384, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080055, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057046, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.477664, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006538, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023106, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02901, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.155805, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.378885, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 995200, "relative_activity": 1.173488, "balance": 1.378885, "dry_up": 1.272979, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023313, "annualized_volatility": 0.13995, "from_high_reference": -0.005875, "from_low_reference": 0.405995 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.934072, "fair_value_reference": 16.032062, "structural_low": 19.661624, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.015779, "positive_rate": 0.676471, "directional_follow_through": 0.676471, "median_excess_return": 0.004524, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.084627, "worst_return": -0.059701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.043905, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.011455, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.191594, "worst_return": -0.082844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.125438, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.023576, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.219216, "worst_return": 0.014157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": 68.939291, "energy": 75.765844, "activity_lines": [ 23.317413, 23.148546, 22.581847, 22.109869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.246754, "volume": 925400, "typical_volume": 863570.0, "trend": 21.612771, "fair_value": 15.801052, "relative_strength": 4.016934, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.454921, "energy": 58.543655, "activity_lines": [ 23.300985, 23.198548, 22.698093, 22.222404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.34593, "volume": 901400, "typical_volume": 832135.0, "trend": 21.722118, "fair_value": 15.876805, "relative_strength": 3.992169, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.360841, "energy": 55.858316, "activity_lines": [ 23.309828, 23.249749, 22.815717, 22.334221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.18, "volume": 1496300, "typical_volume": 860905.0, "trend": 21.828542, "fair_value": 15.953032, "relative_strength": 3.524728, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.358437, "energy": 48.921089, "activity_lines": [ 23.277396, 23.251788, 22.904775, 22.428278 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.690001, "volume": 995200, "typical_volume": 848070.0, "trend": 21.934072, "fair_value": 16.032062, "relative_strength": 2.310613, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.821405, "energy": 54.106733, "activity_lines": [ 23.406785, 23.343097, 23.029086, 22.548372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }